Dallas Goedert Headlines 4 Big-Name Regression Candidates in 2026 Fantasy Football
Fantasy football is a volatile game to play. One season, we can see Saquon Barkley rush for 2,000 yards, and the next, he falls flat. Another season, we can see a player like Rico Dowdle go from undesirable to a top-15 player at his position. You can never truly know what the season may bring, but we can point towards logic over the gut feel. These are the biggest regression candidates at each key fantasy football position.
QB, Matthew Stafford
2025 Final Standing: QB4
2026 Projection: QB13
Stafford managed to throw 46 touchdowns in a year that was originally rumored to be his last. Of course, Stafford is back, but can he throw 46 touchdowns again? Logically, no, he cannot.
The next-highest touchdown scorer among 2025 quarterbacks was Jared Goff, with 34. Stafford's 2025 touchdown total was the highest that any quarterback has thrown since Aaron Rodgers threw for 48 in 2020. A regression is likely, despite keeping much of the same pass-catching group.
Stafford's 2024 season had him reach 20 touchdowns, and 24 in the year prior. Our projections foresee Stafford in the mid-30s for touchdowns thrown.
Projections Soon to Come...
RB, De'Von Achane
2025 Final Standing: RB5
2026 Projection: RB16
Achane is in a tough situation where the Dolphins are widely considered the NFL's worst team. Not only are they deemed the worst team, but also arguably the worst offense. The power index rates them as the 4th-worst offense at a rating of -3.3. That implies the Dolphins will average 3.3 points less than the NFL average over the season.
In such a world, the Dolphins might be lucky to score over 20 points per game. In translation, they probably average no more than 2 touchdowns per game.
The fate that Achane will suffer is ultimately the one of no more Mike McDaniel. The offensive mind managed to get the Dolphins to over 2.1 touchdowns per game, despite only 300 yards per game. With a new coaching staff with less credibility, that also points towards a regression. Achane should have a 10-15% dip across the board.
WR, Davante Adams
2025 Final Standing: WR9
2026 Projection: WR30
2026 anticipated a massive decline for Adams, mainly in the touchdown department. He is a player who had 12 red-zone touchdowns and 14 in total a year ago. That accounted for over 30% of the team's receiving touchdowns. His mark was the 7th-highest in the NFL.
Not only might Adams fall in that ratio, but the offense as a whole might see a decline in touchdowns thrown, as we list Stafford as a regression candidate. Projections highlight that Stafford will throw roughly 10 fewer touchdowns this season, or 0.6 fewer per game.
Given that Adams foresees a target share around 18-20%, a 30% share of touchdowns is deemed his ceiling. More likely, Adams catches 20-25% of receiving touchdowns, amounting to a precise number of 7-9 touchdowns on the season.
TE, Dallas Goedert
2025 Final Standing: TE7
2026 Projection: TE20
Goedert's TE7 standing was much thanks to a new style of the Eagles' red-zone offense. They are cited as having 15 fewer 'tush-push' attempts on the goal line, fewer in 2025. Instead, the offense often went to a 'fake tush push,' in which Goedert was released in a shuffle pass to one that often scored. Goedert had 11 touchdowns in 2025.
The new season brings in a new offensive coordinator, former backup NFL quarterback Sean Mannion. There is no telling what he may bring to the Eagles' goal-line offense. However, no fan can expect Goedert to gain so many goal-line attempts again. It is rather unreasonable.
Our projections see that Goedert has a reduction to about 4-6 touchdowns on the season. Being that tight end is a more touchdown-reliant position, Goedert takes a big fall. He averaged less than 40 yards per game in 2025 as it was, and the Eagles now drafted Eli Stowers out of Vanderbilt. The rookie is labeled a pass-catching tight end and deemed a top-3 positional prospect in the draft.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.