Week 1 Fantasy Football Quarterback Projections and Rankings: Justin Herbert Aims for a Hot Start

Who is going to lead fantasy football in Week 1? Will it be Josh Allen? How about Joe Burrow? Maybe even a sleeper takes the crown? The best I can do is crunch the data and read between the lines. Below, you can see the quarterback projections for NFL Week 1 as well as the best and worst plays of the week, sleeper picks, and projected leaders of the week.

Top-12 Quarterback Projections

Week 1 Quarterback Projections — Thomas Carell

Above are the top-12 quarterback projections of the week. In no surprise, Allen is this week's QB1, projecting 3 more points than the No. 2 projected, Jayden Daniels. Allen has a favorable matchup, with his projection at 24 points, about 8% above his average.

Jordan Love is a bullish play not only this week, but all season. The Packers are the FPI 4th-rated offense, even without Josh Jacobs. The Packers are slight underdogs against Minnesota, but that is expected to result in a shootout. I have the Packers, who also have a top-5-rated passing offense.

Matthew Stafford is among our best Week 1 starts. The Rams have an immense passing advantage down under on Thursday Night. Click here to read more on Stafford's first game as reigning NFL MVP.

High-Upside Plays

Justin Herbert is a player I rate below consensus, but I'm still very optimistic. The Chargers are favored by 10.5 points against the Cardinals. I rate Arizona among the worst secondaries in the entire league. Granted, the preseason played a ton of backups, but the Cardinals did allow 10 passing touchdowns over those 3 games. Their star corner, Will Johnson, allowed north of a 110 passer rating when targeted in 2025.

Week 1 Quarterback Projections 13-21 — Thomas Carell

Very high output is expected for Jared Goff in the Superdome this Sunday. The Lions are big favorites on a 50.5-point game total. He could lead the league in yards this week.

Fade These Quarterbacks

A player who has hype and must not be used in Malik Willis. The Dolphins had to have a team meeting in the middle of practice not too long ago. All reports suggest that the offensive looks as poor as expected. Willis does not crack my top-20 and relies on his legs for relevancy.

I need to see if Kyler Murray is a consensus 'upside' quarterback in 2026. The Packers have hired Jonathan Gannon, former Super Bowl Champion defensive coordinator, to run their defense.

The Cowboys cannot be any worse defensively than they were in 2025. Part of that was due to injury. I am weary of using Dart in a very new offensive situation. He falls to QB15 in my projections with about 229 total yards, 1.0 total touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions.

Sleeper of the Week

This player is being slept on. Maybe I am putting too much stock in Shane Steichen's 2025 successes, but that's something I'm okay with. The Colts were the NFL's best-ever offense through October of last season. That was largely due to Daniel Jones being healthy before he wasn't.

Jones is projected only as a QB21, but that does not account for upside beyond average. I have Jones throwing the 11th-most passes in the week. In 2025, Jones had many games with fewer than 10 rushing yards, but also a handful of games with 20+ rushing yards. I imagine this Ravens matchup can become a shootout with a game total of 48.5.

Week 1 Leader Projections:

Passing Yards: Joe Burrow (283.2)
Passing Touchdowns: Matthew Stafford (2.2)
Interceptions: Deshaun Watson (0.9)
Rushing Yards: Jayden Daniels (30.5)
Rushing Touchdowns: Josh Allen (0.8)

Best Pass Scripts of the Week

Arizona Cardinals: They are over 10-point underdogs. If trailing by more than a touchdown at halftime, Jacoby Brissett will have to get loose with his arm.

New Orleans Saints: This game may have volatile outcomes. The Lions are newly coached on offense, and the Saints are in year two of Tyler Shough, at home. Yet they are 6.5-point underdogs and widely expected to trail all game.

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