Wan'Dale Robinson and 3 Other Regression Candidates in 2026 Fantasy Football
In fantasy football, every season is truly a new slate. Whatever painting was done last season, this version will look very different. Some players may experience an upgrade like Attack of the Clones to Revenge of the Sith — shoutout to my Star Wars buffs. Others may experience the drop-off from Caddyshack to Caddyshack 2 — horrendous.
The fact of the matter is that no output is sustainable for players who reached immense heights in 2025. Well, at least that goes for players who aren't perennial Pro Bowl talents like Jahmyr Gibbs or Amon-Ra St. Brown. The players below have outlier seasons and will regress significantly. Do not draft them in 2026 fantasy football, especially above ADP. Recency bias does not play well in this game...
Matthew Stafford
The reigning MVP is a consensus regression candidate in 2026. He had 46 touchdowns a year ago, of which 12 came from 2 or fewer yards to the goal line. The betting lines list Stafford touchdowns at an over/under of 29.5. I am more optimistic, projecting 34 total, yet still a drop-off of nearly 3 fantasy points per game (4 pt = touchdown formats).
The outlier in the situation was Stafford's touchdown, and nothing else. If he had scored our 34-touchdown projection a year ago, Stafford would have finished as the QB8 in fantasy football. That is before any discussion of a yardage regression happens; Stafford threw for over 4,700 yards and is projected for a strong 4,400 in 2026.
Kyren Williams
Staying in LA, we check out their RB1. Williams was the RB9 in 2025 fantasy football. He was also the RB7 in 2024. Times are a-changing as the Rams have a new and surging young running back, finally primed for his breakout season — Blake Corum.
On August 8, Sean McVay pointed towards a clear split between the two. "I think he and Kyren are great complements of one another. I love that running back room, and Blake’s been great," McVay told the media. "I think Blake Corum’s only getting better and better," McVay really emphasizes.
In 2025, the split was 63% to Williams and 37% to Corum. All signs point to a much closer split. My projections list Williams just below 60% of the volume and Corum up to just north of 40%. That brings Williams to RB14 in my projections, but with a much lower ceiling. Corum is the RB33, varying based on format type.
Wan'Dale Robinson
The output that Robinson had last year will be unsustainable. After Malik Nabers went down in the early part of the season, Robinson went on to average 9.4 targets, 6.2 receptions, 64.8 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns per game. In PPR formats, that came to 14.2 fantasy points per game, which would put Robinson as the WR15 on a year-long basis. His true finish was WR17.
Robinson has now taken his talents to Nashville, joining his former head coach, Brian Daboll. While the rapport he and Daboll have is certainly great, the depth chart will set Robinson back. He works behind Carnell Tate, who was drafted in the top 10. Robinson then battles (and probably edges) Calvin Ridley.
The risk is evident. The Titans have a quarterback who had a much worse rookie season than Jaxson Dart (Cam Ward). The Titans are the 5th-worst NFL offense per the FPI.
Once the numbers are run, Robinson shows to be a flop, but neither a WR18 and WR2 in fantasy football. He is my WR43/WR44, depending on the format. ADP is much lower than mine, listing Robinson listed withas the WR63. Despite calling him a regression candidate, there is actually value to be had, especially in PPR settings.
Hunter Henry
Want to hear a Tight End Fact?
— Tom Carelli | Fantasy Football (@TCarelliTakes) August 5, 2026
Josh McDaniels is viewed as a tight end-friendly play-caller.... but it is very, very wrong.
Since 2015, McDaniels' preseason TE1 has failed to meet ADP by an average of 15.9 placings.
His average preseason ADP among all TE1 and TE2 on his…
The TE13 season for Henry was not a world-changer in 2025. However, he was a weekly viable option in many start 'em, sit 'em debates. In 2026, I think Henry falls off a pretty tall cliff...
The Patriots have too many pass-catchers. They went out and got AJ Brown, who should command around a 30% target share with a 35% ceiling. The team then got Romeo Doubs as their WR2. Now, Kyle Williams rises amid preseason success, and beyond him stand further viable weapons in Mack Hollins and Demario Douglas.
Tommy DeVito drops it in to Kyle Williams for 6️⃣
— NFL (@NFL) August 28, 2026
NEvsCLE on Prime Video
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/agDyHm0clX
Henry has a lot to overcome to achieve a noteworthy target share. I have him falling to own 14% of this passing offense, or 32 yards per game. It shall equal about 4 touchdowns in total, but working in a very deep tight-end draft, that does not rank Henry all that high. He projects as my TE25/TE26, depending on the format. ADP tends to agree as he is going to the TE24.
More Fantasy Sports On SI News:
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.