Fantasy Football Depth Chart Battle: Jaylen Warren or Rico Dowdle?
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The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves with a new head coach for the first time since they hired Mike Tomlin in 2007. The team is with Aaron Rodgers' former Super Bowl-winning head coach, Mike McCarthy. He brings in Brian Angelichio, the former Vikings pass game coordinator (2022-25), as the offensive coordinator.
We cannot consider the 2025 Steelers offense a pure comparison to their 2026 version. While the team returns a good deal of weapons such as Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, and DK Metcalf, they also bring in new faces via Rico Dowdle and Michael Pittman Jr. The focal point of today's debate is running back room and determining who the better option is for the fantasy football marketplace.
What is the Story in Pittsburgh?
I think you have to focus on the reporting timeline across the Steelers' training camp. As stated, this is not Arthur Smith's 2025 offense. While some may think that Dowdle is replacing Kenneth Gainwell, that is not the case. The offense will be run how Mike McCarthy wills it.
The Start of Training Camp
At the beginning of Steelers camp, the team had worked a true split. Day 1, Warren took first-team snaps. Day 2, Dowdle took those snaps. When it came to releasing the team's first depth chart in early August, it listed Warren as the RB1 and Dowdle as the RB2, with no co-RB1 designation.
Comments Arise for the Coaching Staff
In the second week of August, Angelichio talked to the media about the running back room. He stated, "They're both going to play. They're both going to be a big part of our success, and they're both very capable of carrying the load."
Mike McCarthy makes the most important comments that I read as a fantasy football manager. Amid a paragraph of comments, McCarthy emphasizes that he trusts both running backs in all roles. They can play early and late downs. They both can run heavy, and they both can pass-catch. He does not care who is in there. That really labels this as a true 50/50 split.
Reports Begin to Slightly Favor Dowdle
Last week, ESPN's Dan Graziano pointed out that Dowdle may have the early-down role. That does not quite mean he owns the offense in a majority, but it does mean he may be the starter once the Steelers take the field for their first drive. "McCarthy knows Dowdle can be his lead back, and my (Graziano) understanding is that Dowdle is more likely to get the early-down work," Graziano reports.
What It All Really Means
It has become wholly clear that Dowdle and Warren will be run in a split. No matter who gets the start or the early-down work, it shall be offset in the long run of a football game. For example: Dowdle may start, get 4-6 snaps, then Warren comes in. He will then get another section of snaps, and the start of a drive will flip-flop throughout the game.
My current projections put Warren at RB24, just ahead of Dowdle at RB27. The run share is a dead heat, both around 45% of the rushing offense. Warren only gets a very slight receiving-share edge of 7% to Dowdle's 5%.
In 2025, Dowdle averaged 4.6 yards per attempt while Warren was at 4.5. They both ranged at about 3.1 yards after contact per attempt. They are very similar at their core when it all breaks down.
In the air, Warren was a bit better. He averaged 7.4 yards per catch to Dowdle's 5.9. Warren had an 88.9% catch rate to Dowdle's 78%. Warren also had a yards-after-catch advantage of 11.0 to Dowdle's 9.0. Hence, Warren's slight advantage in overall ranking is due to receiving value.
Who is the Better Fantasy Pick?
For the reasons stated above, I prefer Warren at cost, as it has a slim margin. Warren's current ADP is 27th overall, while Dowdle is 29th. There is no telling which one to give one running back to, which one to favor. While McCarthy signed Dowdle and inherited Warren, he likes them both equally when dissecting all of his comments over this offseason.
Sometimes, money can talk when showing favor in a depth chart battle. That will not happen here. Warren is making about $7 million per year through 2027. Dowdle averages $6 million per year, also through 2027.
Both draft picks are on the lower end of the risk spectrum, with median upside. They are quality picks at cost, but should not be drafted far above ADP. Neither is the better pick at cost.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.