Eagles vs. Cowboys: TNF Player Projections & Start-Sit Guide

Get fantasy football projections and start/sit recommendations for the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Week 1 matchup to kick off the 2025 NFL season.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) throws the ball as he warms up before a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Lincoln Financial Field. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Despite the first 2025 NFL football kicking off on Thursday night, where the defending Super Bowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, take on the Dallas Cowboys at home, many fantasy teams remain undrafted. In addition, fantasy lineups need to be set before the opening kickoff in most leagues. 

Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Dallas Cowboys

TV: NBC/Peacock

Time: 8:20 PM EST

Vegas Line (DraftKings): Philadelphia -8.5 points

Over/Under: 47.5

Dallas Cowboys Week 1 Projections

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 1, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for Dallas and Philadelphia:

Shawn Childs

Dak Prescott is looking to rebound after a disappointing season, and Dallas added George Pickens to their receiving corps to hopefully regain some of their passing explosiveness. The Cowboys’ defense lost top pass rusher Micah Parsons due to a late August trade to the Green Bay Packers. This deal should pay dividends down the road for Dallas, thanks to two future first-round draft picks, but how will the Cowboys fill his void in their pass rush?

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) warms up before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at AT&T Stadium. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

CeeDee Lamb (WR) remains one of the best wide receivers in the game, and he should be active again in this matchup. Our opening projections have him catching eight passes for 91 yards with 75% chances of scoring. DraftKings has him at -101 to go over 6.5 receptions (+174 if he secures eight or more passes). His opening over/under for receiving yards is 73.5 yards (-111). Lamb is +140 to score a touchdown.

George Pickens (WR) has an excellent opportunity for success with Dallas. He no longer draws WR1 coverage, and the Cowboys will throw many more passes than in his time with the Pittsburgh Steelers. I have him projected for four catches for 57 yards and a 75% chance of reaching the end zone. DraftKings set his line at 4.5/56.5 with a +215 scoring line.

Both of the above receivers should be started in 12-team fantasy lineups. 

Dak Prescott (QB) has an imbalance in his outlook for me. His combined receiver projections come to 246.5 passing yards, while his starting game passing outlook has an over/under of 278 passing yards. In these cases, early in the year, I tend to side with receiving data, as each team in the NFL brings a new offensive and defensive structure to the 2025 season. 

My projections for completions (24.4) and pass attempts (37.8) are close to the lines set by DraftKings (23.5 for 36.5 with 249.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing TDs).

Prescott has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback this draft season. He tends to have a much higher ceiling at home. This matchup suggests about 22.00 fantasy points, making him a borderline top 12 quarterback in Week 1.

Philadelphia Eagles Week 1 Projections

Shawn Childs

When setting the initial projections for Philadelphia, my data suggested two rushing scores for the Eagles and 1.5 passing touchdowns. I wanted to up their scoring via the pass to two, but I decided to stay aligned with Philadelphia’s opening scoring projections (about 27 points). 

Saquon Barkley (RB) lines up for a high-floor day based on my projections (20/100/1 with two catches for 20 yards). DraftKings set his over/under at 94.5 rushing yards (-112), with 19.5 attempts (+102). They expect him to score at least once (-190). 

Barkley should be in a fantasy lineup each week due to his explosiveness and elite touch opportunity. 

Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (26) before a game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Lincoln Financial Field. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

Jalen Hurts (QB) is also a heavy favorite to score a rushing touchdown (-150). His ability to finish a drive in close with a dance in the end zone creates an edge in the fantasy market.

His passing stats could be mispriced this year based on the Eagles finishing last in the NFL in pass attempts (448 – 26.4 per game) in 2024. The previous season, Philadelphia was closer to the league average in passing attempts (563 – 33.1 per game). Based on this information, I upped their opening passing outlook to 29.1 passes vs. the Cowboys.

DraftKings set Hurts’s over/under at 27.5 for pass attempts (-106), which could be too low. Last year, AJ Brown (4), DeVonta Smith (4), and Dallas Goedert (7) missed a combined 15 games, which was a significant factor in the Eagles’ lower passing opportunities. His over/under in completions (18.5/-108) is close to my projections (18.9). I’m more bullish on his passing yards (234.7 – 215.5 at DraftKings).

AJ Brown (WR) has winning projections for Week 1 (seven catches for 97 yards with a 75% chance of scoring). DraftKings set his over/under at 72.5 yards (-110) with a -154 line on the under 5.5 catches. In his home matchup last season with Dallas, Brown turned in a quiet day (3/36/1). A longer passing window should lead to more time for Jalen Hurts to get his top wideout the ball. He’s scored a touchdown in three consecutive games at home vs. the Cowboys.

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The early Week 1 projections at Fantasy On Si have been released, with a second update coming later this week. Each team’s injury report will lead to many changes over the next couple of days.