Fantasy Football Week 10 Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Jayden Daniels or Pat Mahomes?
Start-sit decisions might drive a man insane. They are difficult, and quite often, we will be wrong. Probability is a prime example. I can measure two quarterbacks ranked closely, and even with the sharpest analysis, I might be right only 60% of the time. We can still try, and today, I'm debating two stellar quarterbacks: Jayden Daniels and Pat Mahomes.
The Case of Jayden Daniels
After much research and development, I have found the following to be the best measures of success at quarterback: passing + rushing volume, matchup, red zone efficiency, and pure skill.
Daniels has played five full games this season. In those games, he averages 32.6 passing attempts per game. To simplify the measures, Daniels ranks as follows among 29 qualified quarterbacks with at least 180 dropbacks this season:
- 18th in Passing Yards per Full Game Played
- 17th in Completion Percentage
- 18th in Yards per Attempt
We are dealing with an average quarterback in terms of passing volume. That is not where Daniels will often win the fantasy week. Rather, he will win it on his feet.
Daniels ranks as the follows among quarterbacks in rushing output:
- 8th in Rushing Attempts per Full Game Played
- 1st in Rushing Yards per Full Game Played
- 1st in Yards per Attempt
The matchup will then define how good Daniels can be this week. He faces the Giants on Thursday Night Football. They rank as follows:
- 3rd-best in Passing Yards Allowed per Game
- 7th-worst in Passing Touchdowns Allowed per Game
- 2nd-worst in Quarterback Rushing Yards Allowed per Game
- Worst in Quarterback Rushing Touchdowns Allowed per Game
It's a solid matchup for Daniels, who wins on the ground in fantasy football. Expect him to escape the pocket and gun for 50+ rushing yards in this game.
Touchdowns scored are just a bonus to Daniels' volume. The more volume, the more touchdowns he's expected to have. For reference, Daniels has six passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns across all five full games this season.
The Case of Pat Mahomes
Mahomes has started eight full games this season. He is averaging 33.0 passing attempts per game.
Among 29 qualified quarterbacks with at least 180 dropbacks this season, Mahomes ranks as follows:
- 10th in Passing Yards per Game
- 7th in Completion Percentage
- 10th in Yards per Attempt
Different than Daniels, Mahomes wins through the air. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't discount his rushing ability. Mahomes ranks as follows in rushing output:
- 16th in Rushing Attempts per Game
- 17th in Rushing Yards per Game
- 18th in Yards per Attempt
Mahomes is mediocre at running the ball, but he will do it. He is not a statue in the pocket, and he'll scramble a few times per game.
The matchup will decide how good Mahomes can truly be in Week 10. He competes against the Falcons this week, who rank as follows:
- 13th-worst in Passing Yards Allowed per Game
- 11th-worst in Passing Touchdowns Allowed per Game
- 2nd-best in Rushing Yards Allowed per Game to Quarterbacks
- 8th-worst in Rushing Touchdowns Allowed per Game to Quarterbacks
Mahomes has a relatively average passing matchup. His rushing matchup does not affect him much, as Mahomes isn't a high-volume rusher; he doesn't scramble much, but he does when the opportunity arises.
Over eight games, Mahomes has 14 passing touchdowns and 1 rushing touchdown.
Start 'Em Sit 'Em: Jayden Daniels vs. Pat Mahomes
The debate between these two quarterbacks is paper-thin. They are separated by decimals in my Week 10 quarterback projections. I ultimately find that the best rule of thumb is to run with the safer pick, which is Daniels.
Because Mahomes is more of a passer than a runner, he relies more on touchdowns. Daniels, however, can deliver a great deal without scoring as many touchdowns.
In the four games in which Daniels threw one or fewer passing touchdowns, he is averaging 19.51 fantasy points. Meanwhile, Mahomes has scored fewer than 19.0 fantasy points five times, despite throwing at least two touchdowns in three of those instances.
Neither option carries a great deal of risk, and both can be started, but Daniels has my favoritism.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.