Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Jared Goff vs. Joe Burrow

Week 14 fantasy football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em breakdown analyzes the critical lineup decision between quarterbacks Jared Goff and Joe Burrow.

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) has a plus fantasy football matchup in Week 14 against the Dallas Cowboys, making him the better option over Joe Burrow. | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The fantasy football regular season is coming down to the wire, and Week 14 presents a pivotal moment for managers fighting for playoff positioning. This week brings a fascinating dilemma at the quarterback position involving two of the league’s premier passers who find themselves in vastly different situations.

On one side stands Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, a signal-caller who has quietly put together a highly efficient campaign. He heads into a Thursday night clash with a team desperate for a defensive identity. On the other side is Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who just made a triumphant return from injury to keep his team’s slim postseason hopes alive.

Both players offer significant upside, yet they face opposing defensive realities this week. Goff looks down the barrel of a potential shootout indoors, while Burrow must navigate one of the league’s stingiest secondaries. Making the wrong choice here could be the difference between a playoff berth and a consolation bracket, requiring a deep dive into the metrics to separate the reliable starter from the risky play.

Jared Goff's fantasy potential against a vulnerable Dallas unit

Goff enters Week 14 riding a wave of momentum that has made him a staple in fantasy lineups. Despite some inconsistencies on the offensive line, he has remained a reliable producer for managers. As one analyst noted, Goff continues a mostly steady stretch behind center, throwing two or more touchdowns in seven of his last nine games.

The primary appeal for Goff this week is the venue and the opponent. The Lions are playing at home, where the offense historically thrives, facing a Dallas Cowboys defense that has completely collapsed in recent weeks. The Cowboys recently allowed massive point totals to Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes, struggling to contain the pass.

Turn on the jets, Goff!

GBvsDET on FOX/FOX One/Tubi
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/r9JdVxdZMU

— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2025

Advanced metrics favor Detroit heavily in this spot. One report highlights that Goff is a top-five play this week as he and the Lions take on the Cowboys on Thursday night. That recent trend will undoubtedly continue against a Dallas defense that gives up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per game this season.

There is some concern regarding the health of star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is dealing with an ankle issue. However, Goff proved last week against Green Bay that he can produce even when his top option is limited or absent. The matchup is simply too inviting to ignore. As recent analysis suggests, ideally Amon-Ra St. Brown suits up, but even if he doesn’t, Goff still carries a top-10 floor against a flailing Dallas defense.

Joe Burrow could flourish in a high volume matchup against Buffalo

Burrow’s return to the field on Thanksgiving was nothing short of heroic. After missing nearly three months, he threw for 261 yards and two scores, proving his turf-toe injury is manageable. The coaching staff clearly trusts him to air it out immediately.

Data from his return highlights a shift in offensive philosophy. In Week 13, the Bengals had a 5.8 percent pass rate over expectation (PROE). A 5.8 percent PROE would be the fifth-highest mark over the course of the full season, signaling that Cincinnati intends to win through the air.

Joe Burrow had himself a Dey in Buffalo. 🐅@JoeyB | @bengals pic.twitter.com/qXVLX2lfGb

— NFL (@NFL) January 23, 2023

The potential return of Tee Higgins further boosts Burrow's outlook. This will be the first time since Week 2 that Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Higgins have shared the field together. However, volume and weapons might not be enough to overcome the opponent. The Buffalo Bills have been a nightmare for quarterbacks all year.

The statistical ceiling for passers facing Buffalo is exceptionally low. Not a single quarterback has recorded more than 300 yards passing in a game versus Buffalo this season. Furthermore, Buffalo allows the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. While Burrow is an elite talent, the combination of a difficult defense and a team that might try to control the clock makes his path to a QB1 finish much narrower than usual.

Why Jared Goff is the safer option

When weighing these two options, the decision ultimately comes down to the volatility of the defensive matchups. Goff is the superior play for Week 14 because his path to points is significantly less resistant than Burrow’s.

The Cowboys have surrendered a league-high 28 passing touchdowns this season. This creates a "track meet" environment where Detroit will likely need to keep scoring to put the game away. Goff gets to play indoors, at home, against a secondary that is bleeding production.

"Dig the **** in, no one's coming to save us."@JaredGoff16 challenged his teammates to make a play. @Jahmyr_Gibbs1 did just that.@insidetheNFL Mic'd Up Week 12 on X pic.twitter.com/sFRXPmnQ8h

— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2025

Conversely, Burrow faces a Buffalo unit that suffocates passing attacks. While Burrow might accumulate yardage through sheer volume, his efficiency is likely to suffer. Goff offers the perfect convergence of a high floor and a massive ceiling.

As the matchup data indicates, Dallas has surrendered the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, making Goff a strong play in any format. Trust the matchup and the home-field advantage this week.

Verdict: Start Jared Goff. Sit Joe Burrow.