Rams vs. 49ers TNF Preview: Projections and Odds for Puka Nacua & Christian McCaffrey

Our Rams vs. 49ers Thursday Night Football preview breaks down odds, projections, and top fantasy outlooks for stars like Puka Nacua and Christian McCaffrey.

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) celebrates after a complete pass and first down during the first half against the Indianapolis Colts at SoFi Stadium. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The San Francisco 49ers (3-1) limp into Los Angeles to take on the Rams (3-1) without QB Brock Purdy, WR Jauan Jennings, and WR Ricky Pearsall. The division lead is on the line, but the 49ers have one winning offensive weapon (Christian McCaffrey) while trying to band-aid their receiver corps. 

TV: Prime Video

Time: 8:15 PM EST

Vegas Line (DraftKings): Los Angeles Rams -8.5 points

Over/Under: 45.5

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 5, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for the 49ers and Rams.

San Francisco 49ers Week 5 Fantasy Football Projections

Shawn Childs

DraftKings set Mac Jones over/under at 213.5 passing yards (-114o), which is below my projections (228 yards). He looked sharp in his first two starts (278/3 and 284/1), thanks to averaging 40 passes. The 49ers’ offense should struggle to sustain drives, inviting the wrong side of the time of possession and fewer points. Jones is expected to post fewer than 1.5 passing touchdowns (-212u).

DraftKings

Christian McCaffrey is drawing some over action in his over/under in rushing yards (64.5o). He has yet to surpass that total in his last three games, averaging 3.3 yards per carry over this span and for the year. 

Over the first four games, the Rams held running backs to 3.8 yards per rush (82/315/1) while grading well in running back pass coverage (12/46/0 on 16 targets).

McCaffrey has an over/under of 54.5 receiving yards (-113u), an area he has had more success at this year (9/73, 6/52/1, 10/88, and 6/92/1). He is -120 to score an anytime touchdown. 

DraftKings has Kendrick Bourne as the favorite to lead the 49ers in wide receiving yards (40.5u), with Demarcus Robinson (29.5u) drawing the runner-up card. I expect Robinson to be the top receiving option for San Francisco.

Los Angeles Rams Week 5 Fantasy Football Projections

Shawn Childs

The 49ers’ defense lost DE Nick Bosa in Week 3, which should be a win for Matthew Stafford’s passing window. He relies on two excellent receiving options – Puka Nacua (42/555/2) and Davante Adams (17/269/3), accounting for 64/1% of the Rams’ completions and 69.3% of their receiving yards. 

Stafford has an over/under of 234.5 passing yards (-113o), just below my projections (239 yards). DraftKings has him as a favorite to toss more than 1.5 touchdowns (-154o). 

My rushing projection (72 yards) for Kyren Williams almost matched DraftKings (69.5). He is expected to score an anytime touchdown (-205), with fewer than two catches (-177u). 

DraftKings

Puka Nacua gained over 90 receiving yards in all four games, giving him a 75% win rate over his current over/under (95.5) at DraftKings. He’s averaging over 11.25 touches per game. His touchdown line (-105) remains too low based on him scoring twice in four starts this year, and 12 times over his 32 career starts (36.3%). His true odds should be close to +280.

The Rams will look for Adams in the end zone. He scored in three consecutive starts while posting a floor of 50 yards in all four of his matchups. He is +105 to score an anytime touchdown, with an over/under of 55.5 yards (-113o). 

Only one wideout (Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 9/124) has gained more than 54 yards receiving vs. the 49ers. The wide receiver defense has been helped by a favorable schedule (SEA, NO, ARI, and JAC).

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

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