Super Bowl Target Share Report: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Stefon Diggs Own High Upside
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When we look to play Fantasy Football for the Super Bowl, we must stay up to date on what is going on with these offenses. Who is trending up to WR2? Who may be falling down their depth chart? How dominant are the WR1's? These are all questions to be answered, and I will do the answering for you. This is our Super Bowl LX Target Report.
Seahawks Target Shares and Trends
- Jaxon Smith-Nigba — 36%
- Cooper Kupp — 15%
- AJ Barner — 15%
- Rashid Shaheed — 10%
- Elijah Arroyo — 9%
- Kenneth Walker III — 8%
- All others below 4%
132 catches. 1,965 yards. 12 TD.
— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2026
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has put on a show this season en route to SBLX 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Kn1teOcxR8
Smith-Njigba has been a dominant force across the entire NFL. His 36% target share is among the more elite metrics we have seen at the position in recent years. Nothing is expected to change here, and he will likely have a game passing 100 receiving yards.
The Seahawks are a rather run-heavy offense. This shows with the differences in target share from WR1 to WR2. Kupp is the 2nd pass-catching option, in close with Barner. Once we total this projection, it will have Kupp hopeful to surpass 30 receiving yards.
Barner is a much more interesting option. This is due to his red zone upside. Barner has six red-zone touchdowns and exactly one red-zone touch per game across the regular season.
Shaheed will be our boom-or-bust option. He did have two or more targets in each playoff game, more than in his previous four games. However, neither of these games exceeded three targets. Shaheed is a speed demon, used in space. That is where you will want to get high returns on low volume.
Arroyo has a nice little target share. However, he has not played since Week 14. His output can be volatile in the Super Bowl, and the risk is worth fading.
Walker III will be trending upwards in this game. Without Zach Charbonnet, Walker III has a 12% target share coming his way. In total, we can now see Walker III play to a mid-teens target share in the Super Bowl.
Start 'Em, Sit 'Em
Start: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, AJ Barner, Kenneth Walker III (RB)
Patriots Target Shares and Trends
- Stefon Diggs — 21%
- Hunter Henry — 18%
- Mack Hollins — 17%
- Kayshon Boutte — 12%
- Demario Douglas — 12%
- Rhamondre Stevenson — 9%
- TreVeyon Henderson — 9%
- Austin Hooper — 5%
- Kyle Williams — 4%
The Patriots run a spread offense. That is clearly displayed in this target share report.
"I fell short so many times."
— ESPN (@espn) January 26, 2026
Stefon Diggs on what it means to finally win his first-career conference championship game ❤️ pic.twitter.com/Wh6YGzz2By
Diggs is the team's WR1. He will play right to that. Given the spread nature of this offense, he will be riskier than others, as Diggs can finish with 15 yards or 100.
Henry will be the best Partiots pass-catching option in this game. The Seahawks are among the 10 worst tight-end defenses in the NFL. Henry also leads the Patriots in receiving touchdowns (7).
Hollins is clearly embedded in this offense. He is also now in his second game back from the IR. Hollins is healthy, by all accounts, and should project trustworthy output to over 30 yards, and up to 60+ yards.
Boutte is my favorite mid-shot play of this game. Boutte is 2nd on the team in receiving touchdowns (6), and he averages over 17 yards per reception.
Douglas is another longshot play. He has benefited from his counterparts being injured at various times throughout the season. Though his target share is 12%, Douglas may end up with under 10% in the Super Bowl.
With the running backs, we should trust Stevenson over Henderson. They will be volatile in this game as pass-catchers, so do not rely heavily upon this path to profitability.
Hopper and Williams are purely depth pieces. They can have a big play each, but not as likely to happen. If I play any longshots in this game, it is Holani or Shaheed.
Start 'Em, Sit 'Em
Start: Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.