Fantasy Football Managers Have 3 Reasons to Lower Expectations on Zay Flowers

Zay Flowers walked into Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, put up 150 receiving yards, and then left the game early due to injury. It was a snap count of 20 for Flowers. He reached his absolute peak performance, and in doing so, Mr. Flowers' stock has risen.

The risk is evident with Flowers. He reached heights this past Sunday, but now he is dealing with a hamstring injury. His stock is inflated, his team put up 41 unsustainable points, and I will now make a case to sell Flowers, or at least toy with the possibility.

Why You Can Sell-High on Zay Flowers

All in playing just 20 total snaps, Flowers had a 25% target share. In other words, if he had played the full game, Flowers would have been pacing for well over 50% of the Ravens' total targets and even more of their total receiving yards.

However, we know that is unsustainable. Flowers is not going to average 300 yards per game. He is not going to average around 15 targets, a 50% target share, or any of that.

The best wideout in the NFL in terms of usage has been Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Impressively, he has reached heights of a high-30% target share. Players have hit around 40% of a team's air yards, but that is the absolute top of the mountain. Can Flowers climb that peak? Yeah, sure, why not? But that is a reach and an ill-founded expectation.

I have always called the No. 1 pick in a fantasy football draft the worst value you can have. A fantasy manager must have their pick turn out to be the No. 1 player in the game. If not, you did not get value at that selection.

That translates to Flowers' situation. His current value is that of a top-10 wide receiver. While he does not have to finish as a WR1 to meet his value, he will have to finish as a top-10 wide receiver to meet his current perceived value. I do not think it is anywhere near a lock to happen.

The Week 2 consensus rankings on Flowers place him around WR10. That is, considering Flowers gets healthy and even plays that game against the Saints. I, for one, have Flowers rated lower: WR22 this week.

The reasoning for his lower projection comes down to a few key factors. The largest of all is Baltimore's expected run rate.

Risk No. 1 — Running the Football

The Ravens are projected to have a run rate of about 49.5%. It is the highest projection in the NFL. It proved itself true in Week 1 as Baltimore recorded 35 run plays and 33 passing plays. That is a run rate of 51.5%.

For comparison, the team passing offenses will throw the ball over 60% of the time. In fact, the Cardinals led the NFL in 2025 with a 65% pass rate. The lowest? The Ravens, while indeed under a different staff, passed the ball at a 48% clip.

Now, might that change with Declan Doyle calling plays? I think not. He comes from Ben Johnson's Bears staff, which ran the ball at a 54.6% rate in 2026. That was the 11th-highest in the NFL.

Risk No. 2 — Injury Risk

Flowers has a hamstring injury. That was the reason for his first-half departure this past Sunday. The data favors him sitting. According to Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT, Flowers only has a 47% chance of playing this week.

According to Deepak Chona, MD. SMA, Flowers would be an "outlier" to play this week. Not to mention, a hamstring is at elevated risk for re-aggravation. It is a vital muscle for a wide receiver to use to achieve his peak form of football. If tight, bothered, or flared up, that will reduce what Flowers can do on the football field.

Risk No. 3 — Supply and Demand

The latest consensus rest-of-season rankings list Flowers as the WR10, per FantasyPros. That is a wild Week 1 overreaction, as Flowers' ADP was just a WR15 a week ago in fantasy football. He has risen nearly a full round, and I would not feel overly confident that it can rise any more than it might fall; hence, risk factors No. 1 and 2.

Buy or Sell: Zay Flowers?

Flowers is quite the talent. He did finish as the WR7 in 2025; I understand that. However, the above data proves that Flowers is highly valued despite having multiple risk factors. Buying Flowers right now would be a reach in my eyes. Better investments feature Chris Olave, Rashee Rice, and George Pickens — Lower risk on high-caliber offenses; investments with higher pass rates expected.

I am not going to demand that you sell Flowers. That is not the case. However, I would definitely not buy him. If you could sell him, it ought to be for a buy-low candidate of the same or higher value. My favorite names to consider:

Malik Nabers
DeVonta Smith
Drake London
Omarion Hampton
Chase Brown

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