Fantasy Football Managers Can Give Up on Justin Jefferson as a Top-Tier Wide Receiver
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It may be time to give up on Justin Jefferson. His season has not gone to plan and recently, it has been as bad as ever. Jefferson may have the target share, but he lacks any efficiency, and his quarterback play is mostly to blame. He has (6) Targets combined over his last three games. For a player of Jefferson's caliber, he should exceed that amount in one game, on average. Perhaps 2026 may be different.
2025 Stats: Justin Jefferson
Is 2025 Justin Jefferson one of the worst 1st round picks in recent fantasy history?
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 15, 2025
Didn’t get hurt.
Couldn’t really bench him.
Trade value plummeted. pic.twitter.com/pp0ImLcZ34
Jefferson has played all 14 Games for the Vikings this season. (5) Games came with Carson Wentz and the other (8) have been with his perceived future quarterback, JJ McCarthy. Jefferson has 117 Targets (31% Target Share), 66 Receptions, 832 Yards, and 2 Touchdowns. Jefferson is the WR30 in Fantasy Football, much lower than his Top-5 Positional ADP.
Why the Struggles?
It is crystal clear that Jefferson has not lacked the volume share, he has lacked the efficiency with a low catch-rate of 56.4%. McCarthy is largely to blame.
Among 33 Qualified Quarterbacks, McCarthy ranks 31st in Total QBR this season. Only Geno Smith and Cam Ward sit lower on this list. Of 48 Qualified Quarterbacks, McCarthy ranks 46th in Completion Percentage. Only Jameis Winston and Shedeur Sanders sit lower.
If we so wish to dive deeper, the Vikings stand 32nd in Interceptions per Game (1.4). The 31st ranked team (Bengals) throw (1.1) per Game. The Vikings are also 28th in Passing Yards per Game, ahead of the Raiders, Browns, Titans, and Jets. The Vikings, and McCarthy, have been quite bad.
What to Expect Over the Last 3 Games
We cannot expect much of anything worthwhile. Jefferson is a Flex play, given his ranking. This is where he stands. Given Jefferson's volume and pure skillset, he is still a must-start, but his value lies much different than its preseason perceived value.
Luckily, McCarthy did play his best game of the season in Week 15. The Vikings defeated the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football and McCarthy went 15-24 for 250 Yards, 2 Touchdowns, and 1 Interception.
This is the Vikings finishing schedule (Rank vs QB):
- @ Giants (29th)
- vs Lions (31st)
- vs Packers (11th)
Great news is that Jefferson has as good of a finishing stretch as any Wide Receiver. As we see year-in and year-out, if you survived this far in Fantasy Football, all you need is a couple great weeks in great matchups and like magic, you won your league. We hope that is the case for you.
2026 Outlook
The skillset of Jefferson is undeniable. The Vikings cannot be any worse than they have been through the air in 2025. We would imagine that Jefferson will still command Top-10 value as they must play much better with, or without McCarthy.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.