Why Fantasy Football Managers Should Trade DK Metcalf Before His Value Drops

Trade D.K. Metcalf now, before touchdowns regress in Pittsburgh’s low-volume passing offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf has been steady for fantasy football managers, but he lacks scoring upside. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Volume is the secret sauce of fantasy football because even if a player has a bad game, fantasy football managers can point to the numerous touches that offered the potential to score. After all, a player can’t produce points unless the ball is in their hands.

So, while Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf may be a borderline starter, he sorely lacks the volume of opportunities that managers desire from their players. If you drafted Metcalf around the early fifth round, his production so far has been steady but underwhelming. Through three weeks, he’s averaging 11.8 fantasy points per game.

That kind of consistency is useful, but it’s not what you draft for at that average draft position. Those picks are supposed to deliver upside—players who can separate from the pack and win you weeks. Instead, Metcalf has settled into a low-end WR2 profile, leaving you holding an asset that carries more name value than actual fantasy impact.

On the surface, Metcalf has produced enough to keep him in starting lineups. Our very own Matt Brandon has Metcalf slotted at No. 28 in this week's PPR rankings. He’s scored two touchdowns in his past two games and remains Aaron Rodgers’s clear WR1. But when you dig deeper, the signs point toward regression rather than improvement. Touchdowns have propped up his scoring, and that kind of production rarely sustains itself when the underlying usage metrics are mediocre. If you can sell him now on the back of those two straight scoring weeks, you’ll maximize his market value before the statistical floor caves in.

Volume, Efficiency Concerns in the Steelers’ Offense

The first major problem is Pittsburgh’s passing volume. On paper, they have a 63 percent neutral game script pass rate, suggesting they’re throwing often. But the math simply doesn’t add up. Despite running one of the fastest tempos in the league at 28.1 seconds per snap, the Steelers average only 45 plays per game, dead-last in the NFL. That volume crunch filters down to Rodgers, who is attempting just 28.6 passes per game. In Week 3, he managed only 139 passing yards against the Patriots.

Those numbers are a red flag for fantasy managers. You can’t rely on consistent wide receiver production in an offense that doesn’t sustain drives, doesn’t rack up plays, and doesn’t give its quarterback enough passing attempts. For context, Metcalf’s three-game line, 10 catches on 17 targets for 135 yards and two touchdowns, puts him 56th in receiving yards.

LET 'EM KNOW‼️ @dkm14 pic.twitter.com/4ZKW0hLnm5

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) September 21, 2025

It’s not just volume holding Metcalf back. His individual efficiency metrics also appear concerning. He ranks dead last in average separation score (-0.181) and just 68th in route win rate (9.6 percent). He’s 54th in air yard share (23.4 percent), 44th in targets per route run (0.20), and all the way down at 77th in catch rate (58.8 percent). These are not the numbers you want from a supposed WR1.

The lone bright spot has been his end-zone efficiency — he’s converted both of his targets into touchdowns. But even that is likely to regress. Last year, his end-zone target conversion rate was just 30 percent. It’s almost impossible to sustain a perfect 100 percent mark, especially in a passing game with limited volume.

Metcalf's Matchup and Outlook

The short-term schedule isn’t doing Metcalf any favors either. In Week 4, Pittsburgh faces the Minnesota Vikings’ defense, which has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Specifically, they’ve shut down perimeter threats, the exact role Metcalf fills. In a slow-paced, low-volume offense, Metcalf will need another touchdown to salvage his fantasy line and against Minnesota, that’s far from a guarantee. A game overseas in Ireland only adds more uncertainty, with unpredictable travel effects on an already inconsistent unit.

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf needs more targets from quarterback Aaron Rodgers to satisfy fantasy football managers' appetite for production. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Fantasy football is about timing as much as talent. Right now, Metcalf’s perception is higher than his actual output. He’s scored in two straight weeks, he’s still seen as the Steelers’ WR1, and his name value as a former star in Seattle carries weight in trade negotiations. But the underlying reality is bleak: he’s producing like a low-end WR2, dependent on touchdowns, in an offense that doesn’t run enough plays and doesn’t throw enough passes.

This is the perfect time to sell. Package Metcalf in a deal for a more stable WR2 with stronger volume or flip him to upgrade at running back. If you wait and he strings together a few scoreless games, which is highly likely given his metrics and schedule, you’ll lose the chance to capitalize.

Move Metcalf now and hope the market is still buying.