Fantasy Football Sell-High: Kalif Raymond's WR12 Start is Destined for Failure
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Bears wide receiver Kalif Raymond is off to a hot start. Entering October, there's good reason not to hold him in fantasy football, but to sell high. Surely, the WR12 standing won't last. A WR3 on a football team cannot keep that mark, right? Well, I will help answer that question below.
Why is Raymond Doing So Well?
Through three games, Raymond leads the Bears in targets (20), receptions (19), and yards (214).
Raymond is also playing a respectable snap rate. He ranks fourth on the Bears in routes run (80), but only four behind Luther Burden III, nine behind Colston Loveland, and eleven behind Rome Odunze.
Why Raymond's Production is a Sham
FantasyPros.com always does a great job. In this case, they support a sell-high on Raymond, saying his fantasy points are about 13 points above expectations, roughly 11 fantasy points per game. If Raymond returns to expectation, he would pace to rank around WR30 in fantasy football.
Wide receivers who currently average around 11.0 fantasy points per game (PPR) feature Dontayvion Wicks, Emeka Egbuka, and Adonai Mitchell.
While playing a great deal of snaps, Raymond is also still technically the Bears WR3. In the pecking order for pass-catching duties, he ranks fourth, even when factoring in the routes he runs. Colston Loveland is at a yearly low and should start seeing more targets. The same goes for Odunze. Naturally, a normalization will begin to work against Raymond.
I constantly update player yard-share projections. In the Bears' receiving game, Raymond is projected to command about 18% of the Bears' receiving offense in Week 4. He falls behind both Odunze and Burden III, who are expected to get about 24% each.
My latest Wednesday projections rank Raymond as the WR54 in Week 4. Fantasylife.com's Week 4 consensus rankings place Raymond behind Rashod Bateman, Mack Hollins, and Wan'Dale Robinson. Thus, he is definitely not worth starting, though your competitors may see it differently.
A few other statistics showcase why Raymond's output is set for a normalization.
- 95% Catch-Rate versus a career average of 76%
- 18% of the Bears' air yards
- 6.2-yard average depth of target (121st in the NFL)
Perceived Value vs. Real Value
Raymond is currently the WR12 in PPR formats. Raymond's perceived value surely varies from fantasy manager to fantasy manager. Most players would expect a decline. Yet, Raymond may be viewed as a top-40 wide receiver or a viable Flex option.
As per my Week 4 projections, Raymond is valued in the WR50-60 range. Even then, that factors in his hot start to 2026. Raymond may decline to the WR60-75 range.
Raymond is a prime sell-high candidate right now. A mediocre player playing well above average on an elite NFL offense. The stars align: put Raymond on the trade block and get returns for a player you can mostly get off the waiver wire.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.