Fantasy Football Managers Should Sell High on Brian Robinson After His Abnormal Week 4 Breakout
In this story:
If their name started with a "B" and ended in "Robinson," they had a groundbreaking Monday Night Football in Week 4. Bijan scored two rushing touchdowns, and Brian scored three times. Atlanta has turned its offense around to elite status. However, his stock has risen beyond its normal form. Thus, one man can be sold at a premium in fantasy football.
The Case of Brian Robinson
Over Robinson's last two NFL games, he has 14 rushing attempts, 112 rushing yards, and 4 rushing touchdowns. Combined over Weeks 3 and 4, Robinson would be the RB9 in fantasy football.
The caveat is that this is a misnomer. Robinson is not a top-10 running back in fantasy football. He is not even in the top 25 over a full projected season.
In my final 2026 fantasy football PPR projections, Robinson was the RB54. The projection was about 63 fantasy points across 17 games, or roughly 3.7 per game. Given that he is not much of a pass-catcher, it comes to maybe 20-30 yards per game on the ground, plus a handful of touchdowns.
B. Robinson and B. Robinson vs Saints:
— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 6, 2026
Bijan — Brian —
19 CAR 14 CAR
145 YDS 62 YDS
2 TD 3 TD pic.twitter.com/AW3h8uFeRX
In Week 4, Robinson's workload was elevated for atypical reasons. The Falcons went trouncing the Saints on the ground. The game was in hand from start to finish, and the Falcons averaged 5.9 yards per attempt. If we remove Michael Penix's two minus-2-yard attempts, the adjusted average was 6.3 yards per attempt.
In such a dominant evening, the Falcons did as they wanted. Whoever had the rock ran wild. Especially late in the game, up three scores, Brian got the ball more often.
Nobody should be fooled by this sample size. Rather, they should be as reasonable as I am. Bijan Robinson is probably the most naturally talented player in the NFL. Feel free to debate that. Nonetheless, he projects to have just over 70% of this rushing offense on a weekly basis. Brian should command 20-25% of the rushing offense, with roughly 30 yards per game and a touchdown once every three outings.
In Week 5, the lesser Robinson is projected for 7.1 attempts, 31.5 yards, and an 18.6% chance to score a touchdown. He rises to RB40, but he's still not a fantasy football starter. Unless, of course, your league runs 16 teams deep, then maybe.
To reiterate his limit, Robinson is not a pass-catcher. He has 3 targets and 3 receptions for 21 yards across four games. In the red zone, the Falcons have run the ball 23 total times. Brian has five of those attempts, and four of those came in that runaway Week 4 game.
At the moment, Robinson is the RB33 in ESPN's latest rest-of-season rankings. I cannot deny that Atlanta's offense may be better than anticipated. However, the sample size is still small.
Given that I have Robinson at RB40 this week, and the evidence suggests he won't rise beyond RB35 anytime soon, if at all, I find great value in selling him at a season-high.
More Fantasy Sports On SI News:
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.