There Will Be an Upset in the Belmont Stakes
Let’s get one thing straight: This year’s Belmont Stakes-G1 is not your typical Test of the Champion. It’s a Saratoga showdown — with tighter turns, a shorter stretch, and less time and room for early dawdlers to have the same impact they would at Belmont Park.
Tactical speed matters — a lot.
Let’s meet the eight horses looking to punch history in the mouth:
1 – Hill Road
Irish import has a great late kick — not unlike a few Irish whiskies I’ve had. He blew past the field to win the Peter Pan Stakes-G3, a traditional prep for the Belmont, but here’s the rub: he hasn’t gained much ground on the turn in previous races, and that’s a problem at Saratoga. Though his late speed rations (LSRs) are the best in the field, they’re not that much better than many of his foes, who all possess more tactical speed. (Late speed rations are my own measurement of late energy expenditure — the greater the figure, the better.)
2 – Sovereignty
This guy gave Godolphin its first Kentucky Derby-G1 win, and he’s no slouch. He's got strong numbers and makes his move earlier than Hill Road, which makes him more dangerous here. But again, he’s not exactly shot out of a cannon early. At 2-1 on the morning line, I’d rather buy crypto from that nice girl on social media.
SOVEREIGNTY TURNED ON THE JETS DOWN THE STRETCH TO WIN THE 151ST KENTUCKY DERBY! 🌹👏#KyDerby pic.twitter.com/ZgQEcbvDJb
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) May 3, 2025
3 – Rodriguez
He's a frontrunner without a lot of early zip. Rodriguez earned a dismal -2 ESR (early speed ration) in wiring the Wood Memorial-G2, and his career-best is just -8. Contrast that with Crudo, who recorded a -10 ESR in wiring the ungraded Sir Barton. On the plus side, Bob Baffert trains this son of Authentic, and that dude could get a lawn chair into the winner’s circle. If Rodriguez can rate, he’s got a chance. If not, I suspect he’ll retreat like a hairline at a high school reunion. (Early speed rations are my own measurement of early energy expenditure — the lower the number, the more energy exerted. Not surprisingly, ESRs and LSRs have an inverse relationship.)
4 – Uncaged
He was locked up tighter than a drum in the Peter Pan-G3 and finished a well-beaten sixth. He has inferior speed figures, questionable class, and very little hope. If he wins, trainer Todd Pletcher deserves to be knighted.
5 – Crudo
He's the key to the pace, with the best ESRs in the field and eight Quirin points screaming “send.” Saratoga typically favors frontrunners, so if Crudo carves out a 47-and-change opening half-mile (assuming a fast track and good conditions), he could steal this thing. But — and it’s a Brazilian but — if he goes faster than that, he’s likely to fade badly. This is a guy you either bet or toss entirely.
6 – Baeza
Ran a great race in the Kentucky Derby-G1. Though he typically presses the pace, this John Shirreffs trainee was well back — behind Journalism and just ahead of Sovereignty — after four furlongs in Lousiville. He then made a sustained bid to finish third, beaten less than two lengths. Baeza has competitive pace and pace figures and turned in a solid four-furlong breeze over the Saratoga training track on June 2. At 4-1 on the morning line, he's my play in the Belmont Stakes.
7 – Journalism
Ran lights-out in the Preakness, but I wonder how much that race (and the Derby two weeks earlier) took out of him. He’s the morning line favorite and faces a tricky pace scenario as well as a very talented field of runners. At the price, I’m looking elsewhere, though I’ll definitely use him in an exacta box with Baeza.
8 – Heart of Honor
Dominated in Dubai, then came to Pimlico and melted like a Kardashian in the sun. Maybe he just had a bad trip. Maybe he peaked. Either way, I'm not betting on a form reversal on Saturday.
Final Verdict
Baeza is my play. I’ll bet him to win and in exactas. Good luck to everybody wagering on the race!
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Derek Simon has been a writer and gambler (not necessarily in that order) for over 30 years. His work has appeared in magazines and on websites like CBS Sports, ESPN, Sports Illustrated, TwinSpires, Forbes, Motley Fool, and in restrooms across the country. He resides in Florida with his wife, kids, and seven furry friends.