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2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Citizen Bull

The Bob Baffert trained colt has a career record of four wins and one third-place finish in six career starts.
Frank Taddeo|
Nov 1, 2024; Del Mar, CA, USA; Citizen Bull ridden by Martin Garcia wins the Juvenile during the 2024 Breeders' Cup Championship at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.
Nov 1, 2024; Del Mar, CA, USA; Citizen Bull ridden by Martin Garcia wins the Juvenile during the 2024 Breeders' Cup Championship at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club. | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull was the talk of the two-year-old class following his win in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar last November. However, that buzz has quieted after his disappointing fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby.

In this installment of my Respected Money Kentucky Derby horse betting profiles, we will focus on whether the once-budding rising star can rebound with a top effort in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. 

Citizen Bull 

POST NUMBER: 1

ODDS: 20-1

JOCKEY: Martin Garcia  / TRAINER: Bob Baffert

RECORD: 6 starts: 4-0-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 107

RUNNING STYLE: Pacesetter / Presser

CAREER EARNINGS: $1,451,000

This son of Into Mischief and No Joke enters the 151st Run for the Roses with numerous distance and form questions, despite having several impressive wins on his resume. 

Breeding

Sire: Horse racing fans know Into Mischief quite well as he has sired two of the last five Derby winners. The brilliant colt, who earned $597,080 in six career races, passed on his winning pedigree to 2020 Derby winner Authentic as well as 2021 eventual champion Mandaloun* (finished second but was later declared the winner after the disqualification of Medina Spirit due to a positive drug test). In addition to Citizen Bull, Into Mischief is also the sire of Sovereignty and Tappan Street.

Dam: No Joke is the unraced daughter of Distorted Humor, who is best-known for siring 2003 Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion Funny Cide. 

Citizen Bull Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jockey Martin Garcia, who has ridden in the Kentucky Derby three previous times, is in search of his first win: 2010: Conveyance, (2010 - finished 15th), 2011: Midnight Interlude (2011 - finished 16th) and 2015: Dortmund (2015 - finished 3rd).

History could once again be on the line on May 3 as Bob Baffert looks to win his seventh Kentucky Derby as a trainer. Baffert, who sits tied with Ben A. Jones with six trips to the winner’s circle, after wins with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002), American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018), and Authentic (2020). The Hall of Fame trainer “technically” had his seventh win in 2021 with Medina Spirit, but the horse was later disqualified due to a failed drug test.

Citizen Bull Race History

Citizen Bull has a career record of four wins and one third-place finish in six career starts. One of Baffert’s three prized entrants broke his maiden in first asking at Del Mar last August, at a distance of 5 1/2-furlong maiden - defeating both McKinzie Street and Getaway Car. 

After a third-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) in September, Citizen Bull ripped off three consecutive impressive in the American Pharoah Stakes (99), Breeders' Cup Juvenile (106) and 

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (107) - which displayed improving Equibase speed figures in each triumph.

After beating fellow Baffert trained Derby rivals Rodriguez and Madaket Road in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes by 3 and ¾ lengths, Citizen Bull capped off his three-year-old campaign with a head-scratching 10-length defeat to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby.

Citizen Bull Kentucky Derby Betting Outlook

Citizen Bull qualified for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with the 11th-most points (71.25). Despite having several stakes wins under his belt, oddsmakers have him listed at longshot odds of +2200 in current Derby Futures. The impressive gate-to-wire victory (16/1) in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile showed what Citizen Bull is capable of accomplishing when he gets his way on the front end. While expected to be among a handful who will challenge for the early lead, the question then becomes, can he handle the distance and rebound off such a dismal performance in the Santa Anita Derby? 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Frank Taddeo
FRANK TADDEO

Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.

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