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2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Luxor Cafe

This son of American Pharoah and Mary’s Follies profiles as a dominant Japanese performer with a strong pedigree. 
Frank Taddeo|
Luxor Cafe is set to race in the 151st Kentucky Derby
Luxor Cafe is set to race in the 151st Kentucky Derby | Horsephotos/Tomoya Moriuchi

On the first Saturday in May, Luxor Cafe will be seeking to make history by becoming the first Japanese horse to win the Kentucky Derby. Historically, Japanese horses are 0-for-8 in the Run for the Roses. Yet, oddsmakers have the talented son of Triple Crown champion American Pharoah power-ranked as a top contender in Futures’ markets.

In this installment of my Respected Money horse betting profiles, we will look at an international challenger who enters the Derby in peak form.

Kentucky Derby Contenders: Luxor Cafe 

POST NUMBER: 7

ODDS: 15-1

JOCKEY: Joao Moreira / TRAINER: Noriyuki Hori

RECORD: 6 starts: 4-1-0

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: n/a

RUNNING STYLE: Stalker (Presser) 

CAREER EARNINGS: $379,057

This son of American Pharoah and Mary’s Follies profiles as a dominant Japanese performer with a strong pedigree. 

Luxor Cafe Breeding

Sire: American Pharoah, the 2025 Triple Crown champion, appears to have passed on his speed and appreciation for longer distances to Luxor Cafe. It is important to highlight that despite his dominance on dirt surfaces, American Pharoah's offspring have primarily found success on turf thus far. 

Dam: Mary’s Follies found success primarily on turf, winning the 2009 runnings of the Boiling Springs (G3) and Mrs. Revere (G2).

Luxor Cafe Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements 

Jockey Joao Moreira will be making his Kentucky Derby debut aboard Luxor Cafe. 

Noriyuki Hori is a highly successful Japanese trainer who could be primed for global success in his first Kentucky Derby. 

Luxor Cafe Race History

Luxor Cafe has a career record of four wins and one second-place finish in six career starts in Japan.

After failing to find the winner’s circle in his first two career attempts, he broke his maiden in November, commencing his current four-race winning streak.

In the second race of his 2025 campaign, he won the Hyacinth Stakes by a half-length over Promised Gene, also defeating fellow Derby rival Admire Daytona.

The biggest handicapping take-away from his 5-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes was his jaw-dropping finish, crushing the field with a final three-eighths in 36.51.

Luxor Cafe Kentucky Derby Outlook

Oddsmakers hold Luxor Cafe in strong regard, listing him as a mid-range longshot at +1300 in Derby Futures. The son of a horse to win the Grand Slam of racing, combined with exceptional closing speed, results in a colt who should appreciate the 1 ¼ miles. If he takes to the Churchill Downs dirt surface, Luxor Cafe could be the second Japanese horse in as many years to hit the board (Forever Young, 3rd place, 2024). Based on his eye-popping victory in the Fukuryu Stakes. It will be interesting to see if Noriyuki Hori’s entrant attracts strong betting support at the windows or goes off at double-digit odds at post-time.. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Frank Taddeo
FRANK TADDEO

Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.

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