2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Rodriguez

The talented colt, who is named after American musician Sixto Rodriguez, owns arguably the most accomplished jockey/trainer combination in the race.

In this installment of my Respected Money Kentucky Derby horse betting profiles, we will focus on one of three entrants for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in the 2025 Run for the Roses - (Citizen Bull and Madaket Road being the others).

Kentucky Derby Contenders: Rodriguez

POST NUMBER: 4

ODDS: 12-1

JOCKEY: Mike Smith / TRAINER: Bob Baffert

RECORD: 5 starts: 2-2-1

TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 111

RUNNING STYLE: Presser (Prefers to press the pace)

CAREER EARNINGS: $522,800

This son of Authentic and Cayala profiles as one of the contenders for the 151st Run for the Roses off his impressive win in the Wood Memorial.

Rodriguez Breeding: Sire and Dam

Sire: Authentic needs limited introduction as horse fans remember him quite well from pulling off the gate-to-wire upset ($18.80) in the 2020 Kentucky Derby. The brilliant colt, who was dominant racing at long distances, capped off his career with a victory in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland.

Dam: Cayala’s pedigree leaves distance question marks as her only win in 12 career races was at six furlongs. However, Authentic’s proven ability for stamina and distance is what delivers the goods from a breeding standpoint.

Rodriguez Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements

If you are looking to invest in a jockey with experience, look no further. Mike Smith owns the Kentucky Derby record for the most mounts (28) in the history of the first leg of the Triple Crown. Smith is widely known for bringing home the fourth-biggest longshot in Derby history aboard Giacomo in 2005 at odds of 50/1. In 2018, Smith pulled off the coveted Triple Crown aboard 2018 Horse of the Year Justify.

History could once again be on the line on May 3 as Bob Baffert looks to win his seventh Kentucky Derby as a trainer. Baffert sits tied with Ben A. Jones with six trips to the winner’s circle, after wins with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002), American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018), and Authentic (2020). The Hall of Fame trainer “technically” had his seventh win in 2021 with Medina Spirit, but the horse was later disqualified due to a failed drug test.

Congrats to the connections of Rodriguez for his win in the Wood Memorial!

Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Bob Baffert

📸: @coglianesephoto pic.twitter.com/mObPyCg2nI
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 6, 2025

Rodriguez Race History

Rodriguez has a career record of two wins with two seconds. and one third-place finish in five career starts. Including his maiden-breaking win at Santa Anita at a distance of one mile, he has ripped off triple-digit Equibase speed figures in three of his last four races.

The emerging contender followed up his first trip to the winner’s circle with a runner-up finish to another of Baffert’s Derby horses - Citizen Bull - in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) back in February with jockey Juan Hernandez in the saddle.

One month later, after peaking his head out for the lead at the ½ mile pole, Rodriguzez finished third in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita in March behind likely Derby favorite Journalism as well as the highly regarded Barnes.

Rodriguez capped off his three-year-old campaign with his most impressive win on his resume - a gate-to-wire win in the Wood Memorial (G1) on April 5 at Aqueduct - which earned him a career-best 111 Equibase Speed figure -- beating Grande by 3 and ½ lengths with veteran jockey Mike Smith aboard.

Rodriguez is headed to the Kentucky Derby! 🌹 pic.twitter.com/3U1QRhxPMs
— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) April 5, 2025

Rodriguez Kentucky Derby Outlook

Rodriguez earned an invitation into the Kentucky Derby with the fourth-most points (121.5), behind Burnham Square (130), Sandman (129). and Journalism (122.5). Despite winning the Wood Memorial, oddsmakers have him listed as a double-digit longshot at odds of +1300 in current Derby Futures. As we know, his sire, Authentic, proved the oddsmakers wrong only a few years ago in the Derby. Can his son follow in his steps? We shall soon find out, as the pedigree for distance is certainly there.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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