2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Profile & Betting Outlook: Sovereignty
Sovereignty, who’s name means supreme power or authority, will try to assert those attributes on the field of 20 on May 3.
In this installment of my Respected Money Kentucky Derby horse betting profiles, we will dive into what many in the racing industry refer to as the “wise-guy” horse.
Kentucky Derby Contenders: Sovereignty
POST NUMBER: 18
ODDS: 5-1
JOCKEY: Manny Franco / TRAINER: Bill Mott
RECORD: 5 starts: 2-2-0
TOP EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE: 99
RUNNING STYLE: Closer
CAREER EARNINGS: $292,200
This son of Into Mischief and Crowned profiles as a rising contender in the 151st Run for the Roses due to his extraordinary showcase of speed and closing power.
Sovereignty Breeding: Sire and Dam
Sire: Horse racing fans know Into Mischief quite well as he has sired two of the last five Derby winners. The brilliant colt, who earned $597,080 in six career races, passed on his winning pedigree to 2020 Derby winner Authentic as well as 2021 eventual champion Mandaloun* (finished second but was later declared the winner after the disqualification of Medina Spirit due to a positive drug test). In addition to Sovereignty, Into Mischief is also the sire of this year’s Derby entrants Tappan Street and Citizen Bull.
Dam: Crown, despite being unraced, is the daughter of the brillant Bernardini who dominated in 2006 -- winning the Preakness, Jim Dandy Stakes, the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Sovereignty Jockey / Owner Derby Achievements
This will be jockey Manny Franco’s fifth ride in the Kentucky Derby: Far From Over (2015 - finished 20th), Spinoff (2019 - finished 18th), Tiz the Law (2020 - finished 2nd) and Zozos (2022 - finished 10th).
Sovereignty will be trainer Bill Mott’s sixth entrant in the Kentucky Derby over the last six runnings: Country House (2019) - Won (after the disqualification of Maximum Security), Tacitus (2019) - finished 3rd (moved up from 4th after disqualification), Modernist (2020) - finished 14th, Rocket Can (2023) - finished 15th and Resilience (2024) - finished 6th.
Sovereignty Race History
Sovereignty has a career record of two wins and two seconds in five career starts. After coming up short in his first two races, the talented closer broke his maiden by winning the Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs in October, earning a career-best Equibase Speed figure of 99. It is important to highlight that in the late-surging victory, he defeated two rivals he will face in the Derby - Tiztastic and Sandman - by a margin of five-lengths.
He followed up his first trip to the winner’s circle with a win over expected Derby rivals River Thames and Burnham Square in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in March at Gulfstream Park with jockey Junior Alvarado in the saddles.
At the end of March, Sovereignty came up short behind Tappen Street in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream with new jockey Manny Franco aboard.
Sovereignty worked 4-furlongs in 48.4 at Payson Park Friday for trainer Bill Mott. 3/15. It's the son of Into Mischief's first work since his runner-up finish to Tappan Street in the G1 Florida Derby at @GulfstreamPark (3-29)
— sdhorserace (@sdhorserace) April 11, 2025
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Sovereignty Kentucky Derby Outlook
Sovereignty earned an invitation into the Kentucky Derby with the sixth-most points (110). Wise-guy money has quietly backed Bill Molt’s colt forcing oddsmakers to now list him as the second overall betting choice in Derby Futures at odds of +750. As we know, his sire Into Mischief has displayed documented, proven Derby success. Can Sovereignty make it three winners in the last six Derbys for the leading North American sire? It will be interesting to see if his odds further shorten on the tote board come post-time on May 3.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.