Serve On SI

Carlos Alcaraz's Paris Masters Draw is Surprisingly Tough

Carlos Alcaraz is the one-seed in the Rolex Paris Masters, but it will not be an easy path to the final.
Pat Benson|
Carlos Alcaraz will face a challenging path to the Rolex Paris Masters final.
Carlos Alcaraz will face a challenging path to the Rolex Paris Masters final. | IMAGO / PsnewZ


The ATP World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz arrived in Paris well-rested and ready for the final stretch of the season. After spending a month rehabilitating his sprained ankle and planning a platinum blonde buzzcut, Alcaraz looked every bit the global superstar that he is.

Of course, the top-ranked Alcaraz is on the opposite side of the bracket as second-seeded Jannik Sinner. Plus, Novak Djokovic withdrew from the tournament earlier this week.

However, fans expecting a straightforward path to the final were bewildered when the draw was unveiled on Friday night. Below is a round-by-round projection of Alcaraz's surprisingly tricky path to the final in Paris.

Alcaraz has earned a bye in the first round, but nothing is given after that. In the second round, Alcaraz will face either Cameron Norrie or Sebastián Báez. Alcaraz is 5-2 against Norrie and 3-0 against Báez.

Should Alcaraz advance to the third round, he could face the surging Arthur Rinderknech, equally hot Valentin Vacherot, or 14-seeded Jiri Lehecka. Alcaraz is 4-0 against Rinderknech, 3-1 against Lehecka, and has never faced Vacherot on tour.

If Alcaraz makes it to the quarterfinal, he could face the eight-seeded Casper Ruud, theninth-seeded Felix Auger-Aliassime, who is having a career year, or Daniel Altmaier. Alcaraz is 5-1 against Ruud, 4-3 against Auger-Aliassime, and 1-0 against Altmaier.

If Alcaraz makes it to the semifinal, there will be veterans waiting for him. He could face fourth-seeded Taylor Fritz, sixth-seeded Alex de Minaur, 13-seeded Alexander Bublik, or tenth-seeded Karen Khachanov.

Alcaraz is 4-1 against Fritz, 4-0 against de Minaur, 5-0 against Khachanova, and has never faced Bublik on the ATP Tour.

Finally, if Alcaraz makes it to the final, we know who to expect. The second-seeded Jannik Sinner, the third-seeded Alexander Zverev, the fifth-seeded Ben Shelton, and the seventh-seeded Lorenzo Musetti. Alcaraz is 10-5 against Sinner, 6-6 against Zverev, 3-0 against Shelton, and 6-1 against Musetti.

While there is not a single player in Alcaraz's way who has a winning record against him, that does not mean it will be an easy road to the final. Alcaraz has struggled on indoor hard courts in the past and could be on cruise control until the ATP Finals in Turin next month.

The 2025 Rolex Paris Masters runs from October 25 - November 2. Stay locked into Sports Illustrated's Serve On SI for all of your tennis news from the court and beyond.

More Tennis News

Published
Pat Benson
PAT BENSON

Pat Benson covers professional tennis for Serve on Sports Illustrated, reporting on ATP and WTA events worldwide. From Challenger tournaments to Grand Slams, he brings readers in-depth coverage, daily recaps, and exclusive interviews with some of the biggest names in the sport. With a decade of experience in sports journalism, Pat is recognized as a trusted voice in tennis media. You can contact him at 1989patbenson@gmail.com.

Share on XFollow Pat_Benson_Jr
Home/News