Elena Rybakina's Path to the 2026 US Open Final Round by Round

Elena Rybakina is one of the most exciting players on the WTA Tour, trailing only Aryna Sabalenka in the singles rankings right now. She also secured her second Grand Slam title at this year’s Australian Open. Freshly recovered from an injury, it is unclear how far she will make it in an admittedly tough path to the US Open final.

Draw Announcement Reactions

Most of the reactions around Rybakina’s draw announcement have centered on her recent performance at the Cincinnati Open. She faced Iga Świątek in the quarterfinal and was losing 4-1 when she had to retire due to an injury she sustained in her left foot. Critics and fans alike wonder if she has the fitness to make it all the way.

First Round: Thea Frodin’s Wildcard

Rybakina’s first round match with Thea Frodin will likely be over in straight sets. Her opponent is a 17-year-old American wild card whose biggest accomplishment was winning the USTA Girls’ 18s National Championship earlier this summer.

Second Round: Bouzas Maneiro or Vidmanová

The second round match will be the winner of the first round match between Jessica Bouzas Maneiro and Daria Vidmanová. Both players are outside of the top 100 in rankings and will also likely be swift work for Rybakina.

Third Round: Maria Sakkari as Obstacle

Greek tennis player Maria Sakkari is favored to be the first major obstacle on Rybakina’s path to the final. The No. 32 player has lost most of their head-to-head meetings, but a tough showing plus a reactivated injury could spell trouble. If Rybakina can sustain her health, though, she will prevail.

Fourth Round: Rematch with Naomi Osaka

If Naomi Osaka makes it to the fourth round, it will be a thrilling rematch for Rybakina. The pair last met at the National Bank Open in Toronto just two weeks ago, and the Kazakhstani player beat Osaka in three sets (4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4). If she can push back the power of her opponent’s serve, Rybakina will make it to the quarterfinal.

Quarterfinal: Iga Świątek’s Return

If Rybakina makes it this far, the quarterfinal will be yet another tense rematch. The pair faced each other in the National Bank Open in straight sets (6-2,6-3) before the withdrawal in Cincinnati. However, Świątek has only won seven of the 13 head-to-head matches the rivals have had. The semifinal spot is anybody’s game.

Semifinal: Faceoff with Coco Gauff

A semifinal match between Rybakina and Coco Gauff could be tight but would likely go to the American player. The pair haven’t faced one another since the National Bank Open in 2022, but Gauff is coming into Flushing Meadows empowered by a Cincinnati Open win. Even with a fully healed foot, Rybakina will have her toughest battle yet in this round.

Final: Sabalenka or Pegula Showdown

If Rybakina somehow manages to make it to the final, it should be an exciting showdown with either Aryna Sabalenka or Jessica Pegula. The former has not performed that well lately, but she is the two-time defending US Open women’s singles champion. Also, Sabalenka leads 10-7 in their head-to-head count.

Pegula will provide an easier opponent for Rybakina. The American tennis player has never won a Grand Slam title, she just lost the Cincinnati Open in straight sets to Gauff, and Rybakina leads their professional head-to-head series 6-3. If she can fend off injury and face Pegula in the final, the 27-year-old will probably score her third Grand Slam title and sit atop the WTA rankings.

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