Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime Compete for Last ATP Finals Spot

The pair are separated by just 160 points ahead of the final tournament of the regular season.

Lorenzo Musetti and Felix Auger-Aliassime are battling for the last spot in the ATP Finals. | IMAGO / Independent Photo Agency Int.

While the end of another long and arduous year on the ATP Tour sits just 11 days away, there remain several key narratives yet to have their final chapter written across the closing pages of the 2025 season.

The destination of the year-end No. 1 ranking and who will claim the 2025 ATP Finals crown will be the last remaining major unknowns. However, just a week before the tournament is due to begin, the completed line-up in Turin is still to be decided.

Seven of the eight coveted places for the season-ending finale have been confirmed, but the eighth and final spot is still to be filled. What is now evident, however, is that it will be a two-way sprint to the finish between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti.

It is the Canadian who currently occupies eighth spot in the official Race To Turin rankings. He sits just 160 points ahead of ninth-placed Musetti, with 3845 points to the Italian's 3685, ahead of the final tournaments of the regular season this week in Athens and Metz.

All Eyes on Musetti in Athens

Due to what he cited as a left-knee injury, Auger-Aliassime has opted to withdraw from the Moselle Open, while Musetti is gearing up to take part in the inaugural Hellenic Championship - a new ATP 250 event taking place in the Greek capital.

The arithmetic here is slightly counterintuitive. Despite the tournament offering 165 points for a second-place finish, and 250 for the champion, Musetti will, in actual fact, need to win the title in Athens to pip the Canadian to the post and qualify for his maiden ATP Finals appearance - despite lying only 160 points behind his closest rival.

This key detail here is a quirk of the ATP rankings system, which only counts a player’s best 19 results across the course of the 52-week ranking period. This includes the four Grand Slams and the eight mandatory Masters 1000 tournaments (the exclusion being Monte-Carlo), followed by the seven best results over all remaining ranking events.

If Musetti reaches the semi-finals of Athens, then that will surpass his previous seventh-best finish from the 250 and 500 events he has played, as well as Monte-Carlo. Prior to Athens, that was a 250 quarter-final (achieved in Hong Kong, Argentina, and Brussels - they each rank equally). The 50 points earned from one of those last-eight finishes would drop off to be replaced by the points he will win in Athens.

As Musetti needs 160 points to overhaul Auger-Aliassime, the 165 the Italian would earn from a runner-up finish in the Greek capital would only add a net gain of 115 to his current points tally. For this reason, he needs to win the title - the 250 points, adding a net gain of 200, taking him safely past the Canadian by a whisker.

The Italian has made no secret of his desire to achieve this career-defining goal, not least because of the fact that the prestigious tournament's current home is in his native homeland.

"It’s something that is not easy. I'm trying not to think too much of the calculations, but I know I have to win the tournament to be guaranteed in Turin," Musetti told ATP.com in Athens, before he was aware of Auger-Aliassime's withdrawal from Metz.

"The goal is always to win the tournament, so the goal doesn’t change much. Of course, it’s going to be a tough week because there are plenty of players who are really strong on this surface. I’ll try to play one match at a time and think about it like every other tournament."

A Potentially Tricky Path Awaits

Musetti is only four wins away from his goal. Yet, this is not an entirely straightforward task. Despite being a debutant 250 tournament at the very end of a gruelling season, the Hellenic Championship has attracted a disproportionately stacked field.

Today's match against three-time Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka is Musetti's first obstacle. But the line-up in Athens also includes a certain Novak Djokovic, whose brother Djordje serves as tournament director, while the company running the event is owned by the Djokovic family.

An in-form Sebastian Korda and fellow Italian Luciano Darderi also lurk as potential banana skins for Musetti, who also bears the added onus of knowing that any result other than taking home the title will see his place at the ATP Finals disappear.

Impressive Season Comes Down to Waiting Game for Auger-Aliassime

Nonetheless, Musetti's fate rests in his own hands. After an impressive season during which he reached two finals - one at the 1000-level event in Monte-Carlo - and a maiden Roland-Garros semi-final, the Italian closes out his year with a clearly defined aim.

Auger-Aliassime, on the other hand, faces the agonising task of simply watching and waiting for his rival to slip up. The Canadian has had a defining 2025, excellently constructing a much-welcomed resurgence that has yielded three ATP titles and a further two finals after a barren 2024.

Yet he can currently do no more to add another significant layer to his already exemplary season. As the loose ends of 2025's myriad storylines are tied up, all eyes fall on Musetti to see if he can write his own closing chapter in style.