Novak Djokovic’s China Open Title Keeps His ATP Finals Hopes Alive

Djokovic’s China Open title last week marked the first of his season, and it lifted him three places to No. 8 in the official rankings. This put him into the last qualifying spot for the Race to Turin, but a first-match loss at the Shanghai Masters has since put his end-of-season hopes in jeopardy.

Djokovic Wins the China Open

Novak Djokovic defeated Alex de Minaur in the China Open final last Tuesday, when de Minaur retired with a groin injury while trailing 7-6(3), 0-1. The win was the Serbian’s seventh Beijing title and the 102nd of his career, now placing him just one behind Roger Federer. It was also his first ATP title since Athens last November, and it couldn’t have come at a better time.

Djokovic extended his impressive unbeaten record at the tournament to 34-0 with the title. En route to the final, he beat top seed Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals and advanced to the final when Daniil Medvedev was defaulted from their semifinal match. The victory ended a rough stretch for Djokovic this season, where he lost in the first round of the US Open and had gone the whole year without a title.

Moving Up the Rankings

The China Open title earned Djokovic 500 ranking points and lifted him three places in the ATP rankings this Monday, from No. 11 to No. 8. It also returned him to the top 10 after he dropped out last month for the first time in years. With 3,480 points, Djokovic stands just 50 points ahead of Alex de Minaur and 200 points behind Flavio Cobolli.

Unfortunately, Djokovic's new ranking position isn’t going to last for long, as his opening-match loss against Hubert Hurkacz at the Shanghai Masters will cause the Serbian to lose points once again next week. Djokovic fell 6-4, 6-3 in Shanghai, his first opening-match loss there, after getting a first-round bye as the 10th seed.

Since Djokovic was defending 400 points from reaching last year’s semifinals, the loss cost him a net 390 points and dropped him back to No. 10 in the ATP’s live Race to Turin rankings.

The Race to Turin

After the Paris Masters, the top eight ranked players will qualify for the ATP Finals, and Djokovic’s title moved him from outside the field to right on the edge of it. He currently sits at ninth in the live race with 2,840 points, but he technically holds the final qualifying spot because Jannik Sinner has withdrawn from the event with a knee injury.

However, Djokovic’s position is quickly changing, with Alex de Minaur (9th, 2,880 points) overtaking him and Rafael Jodar (11th, 2,609) closely behind him in the Race to Turin. Both players reached Shanghai’s Round of 16 with victories on Monday, and de Minaur’s win over Karen Khachanov moved him past Djokovic in the rankings once again. Meanwhile, Daniil Medvedev is eighth with 3,120 points and also reached the Round of 16 in Shanghai, putting him 280 points ahead of Djokovic.

Djokovic plans to play just one more tournament this season, the Paris Masters, while his rivals have several chances to earn points before the cutoff. Still, the Serbian seems motivated to play in the ATP Finals, and it would be his first ATP Finals since 2023, when he won the title. If the legend can put together a strong performance in Paris, he stands a good chance of returning to the ATP Finals this season.

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