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Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Winner After Thrilling Quarterfinals

Forty-eight teams have been reduced to a final four.
Andrew Headspeath
England has made it to only a fourth semifinal in its history.
England has made it to only a fourth semifinal in its history. / Roberto Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images

And then there were four. With the 2026 World Cup quarterfinals now complete, only the final quartet is left standing.

The last African nation, Morocco, was eliminated in the last eight, at the hands of France, while the United States’s conqueror, Belgium, also left the stage, as Spain marches on.

Erling Haaland and Norway made a final bow, unable to edge past England. Overachiever Switzerland was the other team sent home, with Argentina coming out on top in yet out another edge-of-your-seat knockout encounter.

As attention turns to the semifinals, the Opta supercomper has taken a look at the likeliest outcomes in the final week of action.

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Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Semifinals

Kylian Mbappé in action for France.
Kylian Mbappé scored again as France beat Morocco. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Of the four teams still left in the tournament, France has the biggest chance of reaching the final. Les Bleus are given odds of 57.70% of beating Spain,

At 50.9%, England is actually rated as the second-most likely finalist—though Thomas Tuchel’s team has been given a razor-thin advantage over its opponent, Argentina (49.6%). This one promises to be a thoroughly entertaining game between two evenly matched sides.

Spain is calculated as the least likely team of the four to be at the final in New York next Sunday, but still has a 42.30% chance of besting France.

Fixture

Most Likely Winner

France vs. Spain

France (57.70%)

England vs. Argentina

England (50.9%)

Supercomputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Winner

Senne Lammens tries to smother the ball as Mikel Merino rushes in to score for Spain.
Spain is still the second-most likely winner of the 2026 World Cup. / MB Media/Getty Images

The supercomputer has not wavered since the last round, keeping France as its overall favorite to lift the trophy at MetLife Stadium on July 19.

After a comfortable 2–0 quarterfinal win over Morocco that posed few challenges to Didier Deschamps’s side, Les Bleus are one step close to earning a third star to put on their shirts. As such. France’s pre-quarterfinals odds have been raised from 26.91% up to 34.05%.

Meanwhile, Spain has the second-highest probability of overall tournament success at 23.45%, clearly indicating that Opta is backing the winner of that semi to triumph in the showpiece event.

England is third-favorite at 21.94%, with defending champion Argentina—perhaps surprisingly—lagging behind on 20.55%.

Argentina entered the tournament sitting top of FIFA’s world rankings but appears to face the biggest battle to end the summer on top. Instead, it’s France, third in the rankings, that is expected to overcome second-placed Spain and then claim the crown away from Argentina. Any other outcome, according to the supercomputer, would be a massive shock to the system.

Nation

Chances of Winning the World Cup

France

34.05%

Spain

23.45%

England

21.94%

Argentina

20.55%

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