2024 College Football Season Preview: How to Bet New College Football Playoffs

We enter into a new age of college football as the sport ushers in a new conference that features plenty of re-shaped leagues and a playoff structure that has expanded from four teams to 12.

With more teams vying for the postseason, and two leagues taking on a lion’s share of the contenders with the Big Ten and SEC shaking up the sport with loaded conferences, how should we handle this evolving market?

Considering the postseason is tripling in size, and the criteria is constantly changing with the College Football Playoff Selection Committee still choosing the entrants, there may be some questions in the betting market for how this will develop.

Below, I’ll try to set the stage for this season as well as give some betting guidelines.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

College Football Playoffs National Championship Odds

Georgia: +280
Ohio State: +400
Oregon: +650
Texas: +850
Ole Miss: +1400
LSU: +1800
Notre Dame: +1800
Penn State: +2000
Florida State: +3000
Michigan: +3000
Tennessee: +3500
Missouri: +4000
Texas A&M: +4000
Clemson: +6000
Utah: +6000
Miami (Florida): +6000

College Football Playoffs Odds to Make Playoffs

Ohio State: -650
Georgia: -600
Oregon: -300
Texas: -220
Notre Dame: -165
Penn State: -145
Ole Miss: -130
Alabama: +100
LSU: +125
Michigan: +150
Florida State: +160
Missouri: +180
Tennessee: +195
Clemson: +200
Miami (Florida): +210
Utah: +210
Texas A&M: +240
Kansas State: +280
Boise State: +400
Liberty: +440
USC: +440
NC State: +470
Oklahoma: +490
Louisville: +500
Memphis: +550
Auburn: +700
Oklahoma State: +700
Iowa State: +850
Virginia Tech: +950
Wisconsin: +1000
Nebraska: +1000
Tulane: +1100
Arizona: +1100
SMU: +1100
Texas Tech: +1200
UTSA: +1300
West Virginia Mountaineers: +1300
Texas State: +1400
Appalachian State: +1400

How Many National Championship Contenders are There?

Before we get to the expanded CFP, let’s discuss if the National Championship landscape is changing with the new that there will be more teams making the postseason.

I will argue that the same group of contenders will ultimately win the title and it will be an outlier if a shocker comes through in the betting markets. While teams may emerge and make a deep CFP run, a la TCU two years ago, I believe that those types of teams will still run into a buzzsaw that has the talent to win the National Championship more times than not, the Georgia’s of the world.

I believe that the value to win the National Championship is quite saturated, one of the best teams is likely to win it and I would say that the winner will come from the bucket of Georgia, Oregon and Ohio State for the most part.

Yes, there will be other winners because other teams get into the tournament, but I do think the surprise runs will still be caped before the title winner most of the time. For now, I'm not interested in taking a flier.

The top four teams will receive a bye, while No. 5 through No. 12 seeds, meaning its very likely that the best teams which I alluded to earlier will have to play one fewer game which can play a factor over the course of a longer season, especially the first of its kind this season. Getting a bye may be super impactful in terms of diminishing returns over the course of the season.

How Many CFP Contenders are There?

To win the title is one thing, and I don’t believe that group is changing all that much, but of course the group of teams that can make the postseason will change quite a bit with more teams eligible to make it.

In my opinion, there will be a ton of focus from the selection committee to get in the most appealing teams. I believe that there will be at least seven teams from the SEC and ACC that makes the CFP with as many as nine getting into the top 12.

Of course, the ACC, Big 12 and Group of Five will get a team that makes it, but if Notre Dame fails to put up a strong record, there can be a scenario where the committee opts to value the two super conferences over the weaker leagues, a sign that the times have changed.

Depending on how the ACC and Big 12 go, there may only be one spot for the league winner while the at-large spots go to 9-3 or 10-2 teams from the Big Ten and SEC that played significantly harder schedules.

Several teams in those leagues are playing the most difficult schedules week in and week out and are sure to receive the benefit of the doubt. Can a team like Alabama get the nod at 9-3 over some other teams that feast on a weaker schedule, like say, Utah, and go 10-2 but need an automatic bid by winning the conference title game to get in.

I believe that close calls will go to the Big Ten or SEC team due to the committee’s preference for those teams due to the attention those two leagues have focused on it.

College Football Playoff Prediction and Best Bets

So, I’ve set the stage on how I’m treating this new postseason, what am I betting?

To me, I find some value in the to make the CFP betting market, but I’m interested in monitoring it during the season. In all the year’s prior in this format, losing a game was a serious blow to that team’s chances of making the top four, and a second was usually the nail in the proverbial coffin.

Now? A loss may mean very little, but will the betting market react that way?

If an SEC team loses a competitive game, the team has a ton of margin for error relative to prior years behind an even stronger strength of schedule.

So, who do I like?

While I will not be getting invested in the market all too much, I do like Texas A&M’s price to make the postseason.

The Aggies play a daunting schedule, but will have a leg up against Notre Dame in a game viewed as a coin flip with a relatively green Fighting Irish offensive line traveling to Kyle Field.

Further, the team will play its three other most difficult games at home this season, hosting Missouri, LSU and Texas (in the season finale). Of course, there are far from easy games, including at Florida and at Auburn, but this is a team with a high level quarterback in Conner Weigman with a new offensive coordinator in Collin Klein that presents offense alongside a budding star at head coach in Mike Elko, who has a defense littered with blue chip prospects.

The A&M to make the playoff odds haven’t moved after the news that Notre Dame will be a bit shorthanded. I already liked the Aggies in the opener, and believe it can be a springboard to a strong season that has plenty of room to get into the top 12.

If the team is more likely to win one of its hardest games of the season, the CFP market should move too, which it hasn't. 10-2 will surely get the Aggies into the 12-team field, and 9-3 may as well. I'm buying Elko's bunch in his first year in College Station with the runway to win on Week 1 and start a strong season.

Stay tuned for more coverage on this new betting market.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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