AL Cy Young Odds at 2025 All-Star Break (Tarik Skubal Set as Massive Favorite)

If you’ve been following any baseball at all in the last year, then you know who Tarik Skubal is, and you know that this market is as dry as the Sahara Desert.

Skubal’s command and pitch sequencing are surgical, and his combination of power and precision feels like watching a modern-day blend of Randy Johnson’s intensity with Greg Maddux’s control. He’s the best pitcher on the best team in the AL. If the season ended today, he’d have his second straight Cy Young, and few could argue against it.

Garrett Crochet, who is the market second-favorite at a long price of +850, might not have the same aura as Skubal, but his rise has been nothing short of cinematic. Crochet has reinvented himself as a legitimate ace in Boston since being relieved of life with the White Sox.

He leads the league in innings pitched (129 ⅓), strikeouts (160) and carries a 2.23 ERA. With a 1.04 WHIP, he’s as valuable as any pitcher in baseball, and his elite strikeout-to-walk ratio is a testament to how well he’s controlled his stuff. If voters want a narrative — comeback from injury, breakout in a new city, stabilizing a rotation on an inconsistent team — Crochet checks every box.

Hunter Brown’s ascension this season has been a quieter story than Skubal or Crochet’s campaign. After an up-and-down debut season, the Astros right-hander is right behind Skubal in ERA at 2.43. His numbers are mostly in the same echelon as Skubal’s as he’s proven durable enough to carry a full-season workload.

Brown (+1200) isn’t just stuffing stat sheets though — he’s changing games. His efficiency and ability to avoid barrels have made him a nightmare for hitters, but it’s still hard to imagine a path for him to surpass Skubal and Crochet.

Max Fried (+2400), who has filled Gerrit Cole’s shoes masterfully in New York, is an interesting punt. With 11 wins, a 2.43 ERA, he’s been the steady ace the Yankees needed as their rotation has taken an injury hit — and voters will respect that workload and team impact.

Jacob deGrom is back from the baseball wilderness, looking every bit like his two-time Cy Young-winning self. With a 2.32 ERA and 3.1 WAR (his highest since 2021), he’s a comeback narrative that could resonate with voters if he kicks things into even higher gear in the second half (barring injury).

Meanwhile, Kris Bubic (+9000) has quietly become an ace for Kansas City, while Framber Valdez (+5000) and Carlos Rodon (+11000) continue to do yeoman’s work for their respective contenders.

2025 American League Cy Young Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Tarik Skubal: -420
Garret Crochet: +850
Hunter Brown: +1200
Jacob deGrom: +1200
Max Fried: +2400
Framber Valdez: +5000
Joe Ryan: +9000
Bryan Woo: +9000
Kris Bubic: +9000
Carlos Rodon: +11000
Logan Gilbert: +15000
Seth Lugo: +15000
Luis Castillo: +15000
Kevin Gausman: +15000
Nathan Eovaldi: +15000
Drew Rasmussen: +15000
Chris Bassitt: +20000
Jack Flaherty: +20000

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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