Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today for Week 5 (Bet Broncos to Hand Eagles First Loss of Season)

Iain MacMillan | Oct 5, 2025

Bet the Broncos to win as underdogs against the Eagles in Week 5. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

It's Week 5 of the NFL season which means its time for contenders to start separating themselves from pretenders.

We have plenty of games to watch and bet on today, and if you're looking for some bets to get in on, you've come to the right place. I have a little bit of something for everyone, including an upset pick, a bet on a favorite, and a wager on a game total. Let's dive into them.

NFL Best Bets Today for Week 5

• Broncos +184 vs. Eagles via FanDuel
• Cowboys vs. Jets OVER 47.5 (-104) via FanDuel
• Chargers -2.5 (-120) vs. Commanders via DraftKings

Broncos vs. Eagles Prediction

The Philadelphia Eagles may be 4-0, but there are a lot of signs that should concern Eagles fans. For example, this team ranks 28th in the league in Net Yards per Play at -1.2, which is only one spot above the Panthers and one spot worse than the Saints. They also rank just 16th in EPA per play and 13th in opponent EPA per play.

Not only do their underlying numbers not match their record, but now they have to take on one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Denver Broncos. The Broncos' defense ranks fifth in opponent EPA per play and second in opponent success rate.

If the defense can stand tall, the Broncos are going to be live to hand the Eagles their first loss of the season.

Pick: Eagles +184

Cowboys vs. Jets Prediction

The Cowboys might just be an auto OVER bet any time they play in a game with a total set in the 40s. To keep things as simple as possible, their offense ranks third in the NFL in EPA per Play, while their defense ranks 31st in opponent EPA per play. While the Jets' offense isn't as good, their defense is almost just as bad, coming in at 30th in opponent EPA per play.

I don't want to bet against the Cowboys with the chance that their offense scores every time they touch the ball, but I also don't want to bet against them and watch their opponent put up 40+ points again. Instead, I'll just sit back and root for points.

Pick: OVER 47.5 (-104)

Commanders vs. Chargers Prediction

Jayden Daniels is expected to make his return to the Commanders' lineup in Week 5, but even if he does, I'm not concerned. I expected him to take a step back this year after a historic rookie season, and his first two starts showed that regression. Now, he and the Commanders have to take on a Chargers defense that ranks fourth in opponent EPA per play, first in opponent success rate, and first in opponent dropback success rate.

The Chargers' rookie running back, Omarion Hampton, finally had his coming-out game against the Giants, racking up 128 yards on 12 carries along with 37 receiving yards on five receptions. Let's buy low on this Chargers team after their Week 4 loss.

Pick: Chargers -2.5 (-120)

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