Best NFL Picks and Predictions Today (How to Bet Commanders vs. Lions in NFL Divisional Round)

Breaking down the best bets for the divisional round matchup between the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions on Saturday night.

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is a solid bet to find the end zone this week. | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders were the only lower seed to advance from the wild-card round to the divisional round, and that has set up a matchup with the No. 1-seeded Detroit Lions on Saturday night.

Detroit is fresh off of a bye week after knocking off the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 of the regular season to earn the No. 1 seed. With running back David Montgomery on the mend, the Lions are hoping to be a little healthier than they were to close the regular season when they take on Washington.

Daniels snapped a crazy streak of six straight road games by rookie quarterbacks where they failed to get a win, but he and the Commanders are the biggest underdog of the week – sitting as 9.5-point dogs against Detroit.

The Lions have been dominant all season long, posting an average scoring margin of over 13 points per game when favored at home, so the Commanders have their work cut out for them just to keep this game close. 

With a total in the mid 50s, this game should be a fun one for anyone who likes offense. 

SI’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan has a play for the total in Saturday night’s matchup, and there are several more bets to consider in this matchup. 

Here’s a curation of our favorite picks for Commanders vs. Lions in the divisional round!

Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Commanders vs. Lions

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Washington Commanders-Detroit Lions OVER 55.5 (-110) – Iain MacMillan
• Austin Ekeler Anytime TD (+235) – Peter Dewey
• Jayden Daniels Anytime TD (+155) – Iain MacMillan
• Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 84.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Washington Commanders-Detroit Lions OVER 55.5 (-110) – Iain MacMillan

Earlier this week, MacMillan shared why he’s taking the OVER in this matchup in his Road to Super Bowl 59 column – where he bets on every playoff game: 

I'm not going to overthink this game. Give me the OVER and let's just sit back and root for points in this NFC showdown.

You don't need me to tell you these are two of the most elite offenses in the NFL. They rank third and fourth in EPA per play, first and fifth in success rate, and first and fifth in points per game. The Lions can attack defenses both on the ground and through the air while the Commanders can torch teams through the air with their electric rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels.

Defensively, I have a lot of questions for both teams. The Lions are still dealing with plenty of injuries, especially their secondary, and the Commanders have had holes on that side of the football all season. All signs possible point to this being a high-scoring affair.

Austin Ekeler Anytime TD (+235) – Peter Dewey

Washington running back Austin Ekeler returned to action in Week 18, and he ended up playing 47 percent of the team’s snaps in the wild-card round win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Ekeler played well in that game, carrying the ball eight times for 27 yards while catching three of his four targets for 26 yards.

The veteran only has four scores on the season, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see his role expand after Brian Robinson Jr. ran for just 16 yards on 10 carries against Tampa Bay.

Detroit has been beatable on the ground, allowing 4.5 yards per carry and 18 rushing touchdowns during the regular season. A dual-threat back, Ekeler could find his way into the end zone through the air as well, making him an intriguing bet on Saturday. 

Jayden Daniels Anytime TD (+155) – Iain MacMillan

MacMillan is also eyeing a player in the Washington running game, only he’s taking quarterback Jayden Daniels to hit pay dirt: 

I expect Jayden Daniels to have a big game running the football, including potentially scoring a touchdown himself. The Lions have struggled to stop opposing quarterbacks running the ball this season, allowing the fourth most rushing yards to the position at 454.

It's also worth noting Daniels took off with his legs 13 times last week against the Buccaneers. If he has double-digit rushing attempts again on Saturday night, there's a solid chance he will find the end zone.

Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 84.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – Peter Dewey

Even with David Montgomery back to full practice, I expect Jahmyr Gibbs to lead this backfield once again on Saturday night.

Gibbs has cleared 100 yards in three straight games, and he’s averaging a whopping 5.65 yards per carry this season.

This is a great matchup against a Washington-run defense that is just 18th in the NFL in EPA/Rush, and Gibbs should get plenty of touches in a game that's projected to have over 50 combined points.

Despite splitting time with Montgomery most of this season, Gibbs has six games with 85 or more rushing yards and eight with at least 83 rushing yards.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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