Bet on Commanders to Regress in 2025

As we approach the 2025 NFL season, it's time to start evaluating teams and deciding which we think will exceed expectations this year and which will take a step back.

If you feel confident about your takes, you can put your money where your mouth is across any sportsbook that's offering odds across the internet. Last year, I picked the New York Jets as the team that I believed wasn't going to live up to their preseason expectations.

This year, the team I'm picking to have a disappointing 2025 campaign is the Washington Commanders. Before I break down why, let's check out the ways that DraftKings Sportsbook is allowing us to fade them.

2025 Commanders Odds

To Miss the Playoffs: +130
UNDER 9.5 Wins: +105

Two seasons ago, the Houston Texans, behind rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, surprised football fans across the country, going from having the No. 2 pick in the draft to winning their division and advancing to the second round of the NFL Playoffs. Heading into last year, some people thought the Texans would take a step back, while others believed they would be a top contender in the AFC. The former group of people was the one who ended up being correct. Sure, the Texans still won the weak AFC South, but they took a step back from how good they looked in 2023, which shouldn't be too surprising for a young team.

The Commanders followed a very similar path in 2024. One season after having the No. 2 overall pick, a rookie quarterback had a historic season, leading them to a playoff spot and a couple of postseason wins, establishing themselves as the most surprisingly good team. Now, they'll try to do what the Texans weren't able to do and improve on the high bar they set for themselves last year.

Unfortunately, I think we'll see something similar happen to them this season than what we saw happen to the Texans. The signs are certainly there. Let's take a look at where they ranked in some key stats:

2024 Commanders Stats

Net Yards per Play: 18th (0.0)
Average scoring margin: 10th (+4.0)
EPA per Play: 4th
Success rate: 5th
Opponent EPA: 22nd
Opponent Success Rate: 18th

Yes, their offense is impressive, but their overall numbers are around average, and their defense was a significant sore spot for them. You would expect some more impressive numbers from a 12-5 team that was able to string together two postseason victories.

I could buy into the Commanders mimicking their success from last season if they made a few significant roster improvements this offseason, but those improvements aren't there. Adding aging pieces in Bobby Wagner, Zach Ertz, and Deebo Samuel isn't enough for me to truly believe in this team. I'll admit, acquiring Laremy Tunsil could prove important, but this is largely going to be a similar team to what we saw on the field last season.

I'm not here to say the Commanders will return to being a basement dweller in the NFC, but taking a step back, hitting the UNDER on their 9.5 projected win total, and missing the playoffs in a deep NFC, is something I'm willing to bet on.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.