Betting Vegas: Sharps vs Public for Cowboys-Eagles While Money Pours in on Packers, Chiefs

It was surprising to hear Lamarr Mitchell describe the split reactions from bettors who invested in last week’s Packers-Giants game. Most got their money back after Jordan Love connected with Emanuel Wilson for a late 2-point conversion, eventually giving Green Bay a 27–20 victory and a push against the spread.

The surprise wasn’t that Green Bay failed to cover as a seven-point favorite—it is 3–7 against the spread and 0–6 when laying a touchdown. The real shocker was the amount of Giants bettors who took the points, with the line closing at Giants +7 at BetMGM properties in Las Vegas. Many other sportsbooks had Giants +7.5 right before kick off.

“We had a lot of happy people who had the plus seven and they're very happy about that,” says Mitchell, the executive director of trading for MGM Resorts/BetMGM. “And a lot of people who had minus seven who weren't so happy.”

That was a quirky game with both sides missing extra-point attempts, including two from the Packers. Giants bettors likely were happy because they finally learned their lesson of not backing the Packers against the spread.

But stubborn Packers bettors are still out there and many of them will likely lay the 6.5 points for Sunday’s home game against J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings.

“I expect the Packer fans and Packer bettors to bet this number at the 6.5,” Mitchell says.

As for another surprise, Mitchell said he expects the Jets—that’s right, the freaking Jets—to be a public play, with many bettors taking the 13.5 points for Sunday’s road game against the Ravens, who didn’t cover as 7.5-point favorites vs. the Browns last week. Finally, we’re seeing the public avoid big numbers for favorites, and it helps that Justin Fields was benched by the Jets in favor of veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor.

“With the Jets switching quarterbacks and the way Baltimore’s offense played last week, I see early action on the Jets,” Mitchell says. “I think more people will take the 13.5 points because of Taylor being there. I think with his leadership, he can move the ball more than Fields.”

Here’s one more surprise, but maybe I shouldn’t be surprised about this one: It’s been all Chiefs money for Sunday’s clash against the Colts, according to Mitchell.

Kansas City, a 3.5-point home favorite, desperately needs this game to keep its playoff hopes alive. Even if the Chiefs pull this one out, there’s value in taking the Colts and the points. Indianapolis is coming off a bye week and can score points in a hurry with Jonathan Taylor.

“I think the public still backs Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs,” Mitchell says. “Right now, we're not seeing any buyback on the Colts. The Chiefs do need this game more than the Colts do.”

With more insight from Mitchell, here’s everything you need to know betting wise about NFL Week 12.

Sharps vs. Public NFL Week 12

Mitchell is expecting to see a good amount of sharp action on the Cowboys, a 3.5-point home underdog vs. the Eagles. The public might have already moved that line because Philly was laying only three points on Wednesday and the line went over a field goal by Thursday morning.

“The Cowboys put up all those points on the Raiders, but the Eagles just continue to win,” Mitchell says. “So if the money gets one sided from the public, the sharps are going to jump on the number.”

Odds Movement NFL Week 12

The Bengals started Wednesday as an 8.5-point home underdog against the Patriots, but the line went to +7.5 after Cincinnati announced that quarterback Joe Burrow was a full participant in practice for the first time in two months.

With Joe Flacco dealing with a shoulder injury, there now appears to be a strong chance Burrow plays in his first game since Week 2 against the Jaguars. Burrow sustained a significant toe injury in that game before being replaced by backup Jake Browning. Flacco took over as the starter after Cleveland traded him to Cincinnati.

Biggest Liabilities NFL Week 12

As mentioned above, Jets-Ravens won’t be a liability game because there’s been plenty of two-way action despite the lopsided spread.

That won’t be the case with the Seahawks, who are laying 13.5 points on the road against the Titans. Most of the money has supported Seattle.

“You can’t expect Sam Darnold to throw four interceptions again,” Mitchell says. “I see the writing on the wall already that it’s going to be one of those games where we're going to need the Titans for our lungs.”

The Monday Night Football matchup between the Panthers and 49ers appears intriguing, but it’s been all San Francisco, a seven-point home favorite.

“The Panthers win some games, but they’re not a known commodity,” Mitchell says. “At this point, I think it's still going to be Niners, Niners, Niners. If the number gets out of whack, you might see the sharps coming in on the Panthers.”

Manzano’s NFL Week 12 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook

Buck the trend: Buccaneers (+6.5) at Rams

The Buccaneers have been fading in the standings, losing three of their past four games. And now they’re being faded for Sunday night’s game against the Rams.

Mitchell says both the public and the sharps are on the Rams, but I’ll say Baker Mayfield finds a way to keep this one close.

Enticing Bet: Bears (-2.5) vs. Steelers

Aaron Rodgers is on track to play despite his wrist injury. Still, I like the Bears to keep the good vibes rolling and beat up on an old rival.

Moneyline Dog: Vikings (+235) at Packers

Vikings to cover the +6.5 is a good bet, but I’ll take it a step further. Look for McCarthy to bounce back with an impressive performance against the Packers.

SuperDog: Jets (+13.5) at Ravens

I don’t know what I’m thinking here following the public. But I’m just so proud of the public finally betting on a few heavy underdogs. Fine, I’ll jump in on the action.

Not So Risky: Bills (-6) at Texans

Buffalo came through for me last week by covering the -5.5 against Tampa Bay. I’ll count on another monster performance from Josh Allen against a Houston team that struggles to generate touchdowns.

Stay Away: Panthers (+7) at 49ers

I really want to take Carolina and the points, but I just can’t trust this team. The Panthers have burned me a few times, so I’d rather stay away here. The 49ers look better with Brock Purdy’s return, but that’s too many points for me.

Parlay: Patriots (-7.5) at Bengals; Cowboys (+3) vs. Eagles; Browns (+3.5) at Raiders

I don’t care that Burrow could play against the Patriots. Cincinnati is cooked and New England is rolling through opponents. I’ll side with the sharps on the Dallas play. And give me Shedeur Sanders to light up the Raiders in Vegas.

Favorite Fave: Lions (-10.5) vs. Giants

Give me the Lions to crush the Giants after the ugly loss against the Eagles.

Best Over/Under Total: Buccaneers-Rams (over 49.5, -105)

I’m expecting a shootout between Mayfield and Matthew Stafford for Sunday Night Football.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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