Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 9

The Kansas City Chiefs stumbled out of the gates of the 2025 NFL season, but all of a sudden, they're 5-3 and looking like arguably the best team in the league.

Week 9's Game of the Week will feature the latest chapter in the Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen rivalry. The Bills struggled against the Chiefs in the postseason, but they've found success against them in the regular season. This time around, Buffalo is set as a slight home underdog.

Chiefs vs. Bills Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spread

Chiefs -2 (-109)
Bills +2 (-112)

Moneyline

Chiefs -130
Bills +105

Total

OVER 52.5 (-109)
UNDER 52.5 (-110)

Chiefs vs. Bills How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Nov. 2
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Chiefs Record: 5-3
Bills Record: 5-2

Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Trends

Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games
The UNDER is 5-2 in the Chiefs' last seven games
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played in Buffalo
Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games played in November
Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these two teams
The OVER is 13-6 in the Bills' last nine games

Chiefs vs. Bills Injury Reports

Chiefs Injury Report

Isiah Pacheco, RB - Questionable
Josh Simmons, OT - Questionable
Trey Smith, G - Questionable
Omarr Norman-Lott, DT - IR
Nazeeh Johnson, S - IR-R

Bills Injury Report

Joshua Palmer, WR - Questionable
Matt Milano, LB - Questionable
DaQuon Jones, DT - Questionable
Ed Oliver, DT - Out
Terrel Bernard, LB - Questionable

Chiefs vs. Bills Key Player to Watch

Patrick Mahomes, QB - Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes enters Week 9 as the betting favorite to win his third NFL MVP award. He has been phenomenal this season, showing flashes of his younger self. He has completed 67% of passes for 2,099 yards, which is an average of 262.4 passing yards per game, along with 17 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He has also used his legs more than he has in recent years, racking up 280 yards on the ground along with four touchdowns.

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why I'm backing the Chiefs to win and cover as short favorites in Buffalo:

The Bills' offense remains one of the best in the NFL, but their defense has struggled. They rank just 13th in opponent EPA per play and 26th in defensive DVOA. Bills fans should be scared of this year's version of the Chiefs, which has been far better by almost every metric than they were when they went 15-2 last season. Their offense is better than it's been in years, including ranking fifth in DVOA and fourth in EPA per play, but they are also better than the Bills defensively.

The Chiefs are a step above the Bills at this point in this season. I think they win and cover in the one-point spread in this spot.

Pick: Chiefs -2 (-109) via Caesars

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!