Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Ryan McMahon, Adolis Garcia)

There are only three games on Thursday’s MLB slate, so we’re going to have to get creative with home run props.

Wednesday’s Daily Dinger selections went 1-for-3 in as Anthony Volpe hit a clutch long ball in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game in what would become a 5-4 Yankees win.

I’ve targeted one player from each game in the Rays-Yankees, Braves-Reds and Rangers-Mariners matchups in Ryan McMahon, Matt Olson and Adolis Garcia.

Each of these players offer varying prices, so let’s discuss why I think they’re worth the punt.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today, Thursday, July 31, 2025

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Ryan McMahon (+560)
Matt Olson (+255)
Adolis Garcia (+520)

Ryan McMahon to Hit a Home Run (+560 at FanDuel)

Brian Cashman’s latest addition to the Bombers lineup looked like a calculated acquisition when McMahon hit a walk-off single in the 11th inning on Wednesday night to claim a comeback victory. In Thursday’s series finale, McMahon draws an alluring left-on-right matchup with Rays starter Ryan Pepiot. McMahon has recorded four hits in nine plate appearances against Pepiot with a .625 SLG.

He’s clocked 14 of his 16 home runs against right-handed pitching this year, not to mention he’s average exit velocity in the top 97 percent. He may not be in the high altitude of Colorado anymore, but the Yankee Stadium short porch is due to help McMahon cash in.

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+255 at FanDuel)

The Braves’ home run leader has only faced Reds starter Andrew Abbott twice and has one hit. This may be a left-on-left matchup, but believe it or not, Olson is hitting .273 against left-handed pitching. Abbott has made improvements in his third season as he isn’t a hot target for giving up hard contact (he’s lowered his HR/9 and HR/FB), but Olson is matchup-proof, capping off a month when he’s hit .260 with three home runs.

Adolis Garcia to Hit a Home Run (+520 at FanDuel)

Garcia at +520 is my favorite value on the board Thursday as he has hit .300 in 21 plate appearances against Mariners starter George Kirby. One home run has come from that success, but Garcia is blasting the ball for an average exit velo of 92.5 mph. Kirby throws a hard fast ball and gets hitters to chase with his comprehensive pitch arsenal, but he allows an exit velo of 90.2 mph.

While Kirby has allowed just one home run to right-handed hitters in 32 innings this season, his overall metrics (4.50 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 8.6% barrel rate) signal vulnerability when mistakes are made. Though his overall slash sits at .227/.277/.457 this season, Adolis ranks in the 87th percentile in hard-hit rate and 85th percentile in barrel rate, which is a profile capable of inflicting damage in any matchup as far as I’m concerned.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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