Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Ty France and Julio Rodriguez)

The trade deadline is already offering several home run prop targets based on matchup history on Friday.

I’m looking at one of them in the Blue Jays’ newly minted first baseman Ty France, who was dealt to Toronto from Minnesota at the buzzer beater on Thursday for a cost of pipeline pieces in outfielder Alan Roden and No. 5 pitching prospect Kendry Rojas.

I wrote on Julio Rodriguez’s longball odds earlier this week, but I’m pivoting back to his eye-popping numbers against Jack Leiter.

Manny Machado’s burgeoning exit velocity has upside against Matthew Liberatore, a pitcher he also has owned in previous career meetings.

Home run props are the most popular way to bet longshots in baseball — especially if you’re an EV+ bettor; you’re maximizing profit through expected value.

Let’s look at each target for Friday’s slate.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Friday, August 1, 2025

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Ty France (+800)
Julio Rodriguez (+450)
Manny Machado (+370)

Ty France to Hit a Home Run (+800 at FanDuel)

France has a ripe chance to make an impression with his new team against Michael Wacha, who he has seen 25 times in his career to produce a .480 average with a home run. France’s addition is more of an upgrade in the field than it is at the plate, but he does bring discipline that can work pitchers deep into counts. Rogers Centre has had some home run traction recently, propelling it to the No. 4 overall longball-prone ballpark in 2025.

Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run (+450 at FanDuel)

Against Texas this season — in nine games — J‑Rod is batting .359 with a homer, four RBIs, and eight runs scored, proving he consistently damages the Rangers rotation. But what’s really drawing is that he has decimated Leiter for .546 and a pair of homers in 11 career plate appearances. J-Rod has lit up the sky as one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the All-Star break with five home runs in 14 games, making him a daily target to consider. He’s swinging the bat at break neck speed in Statcast’s 95 percentile. This has made him a popular home run bet this week, so +450 is a pretty modest number in this optimal spot.

Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+370 at FanDuel)

Machado is amassing 20 home runs on the season with three bombs in the last 21 days and an OPS of 1.409 over the past week. That kind of elite power clearly presents a nightmare matchup for lefty Matthew Liberatore, who has surrendered nine home runs to righties this year and recorded a bottom‑1% average exit velocity of 84.5 mph per Statcast. But what’s more is that Machado has already taken him yard before and has two hits in four plate appearances. Machado’s position among the MLB’s top 5% in both exit velocity (93.0 mph) and barrel rate (9.9%) makes him worth odds north of +300 here.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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