Jaguars Win Total Projection for 2025 Season (Jacksonville Should Improve on 2024 Finish)

After a disastrous 4-13 season in 2024 that ended in a double-digit losing streak and triggered a full-blown front office reset, the Jacksonville Jaguars are banking on a fresh approach in 2025.

The AFC South has been football’s least competitive division over the last few years and I don’t expect that to change. Three years removed from winning the division, the Jaguars having only regressed since.

What needs to be done for them to eclipse their win total in 2025? Here are the win total projections.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 Win Total Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Over 7.5: -110
Under 7.5: -110

Healthy Lawrence and New Coaching Scheme Offers the Jaguars Optimism

The reins have been handed to new head coach Liam Coen, formerly the offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay. Coen’s offensive system, which blends power running concepts with modern passing wrinkles, is expected to better suit Lawrence’s skillset than last year’s stale scheme.

The new management has also surrounded quarterback Trevor Lawrence with more firepower — including two-way superstar Travis Hunter, the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner.

Hunter, taken with the No. 2 overall pick, is expected to contribute on both sides of the ball. Add in free-agent upgrades and an infusion of youth, and Jacksonville has what could be a new identity. He’ll join breakout star Brian Thomas Jr. in what has potential to be one of the game’s most exciting receiving duos.

Lawrence’s health is key to the Jaguars competing; he missed seven games with a shoulder injury to really sink the Jaguars last season and it sank their hopes. Now entering his fifth campaign, the former No. 1 pick is healthy and finally has the supporting cast to make strides.

The schedule offers some hope, too. Jacksonville faces the league’s eighth-easiest slate, though the early weeks are daunting: games against the Bengals, 49ers, Chiefs and Rams will test them from the get-go and their season could be over before it even begins.

But if the Jaguars survive that stretch without imploding, their path to eight or more wins — and the Over on their 7.5 win total — becomes far more realistic.

Jacksonville’s +290 odds to win the AFC South reflect the mediocrity that’s defined the division. Even in a down year, the Jaguars could find themselves in the mix if Coen’s new scheme clicks and Lawrence returns to form. But you might be wise to wait until after that early-season gauntlet to invest in division futures. A slow start would widen the payout window — without necessarily knocking them out of contention.

If the offensive line can hold up and Lawrence stays healthy, I project Jacksonville should at least climb back to respectability.

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