Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Royals Roar Back, Diamondbacks and Guardians Go Over)

There’s a full day of baseball today, and we are loving it! Isn’t summertime the best?

Here are a couple of bets I’m targeting if you want to get in on the action. The teams in both games are in the playoff hunt, so plenty is at stake. Both wagers present value, and one is even in plus-money.

Now, let’s have some fun! All odds courtesy of DraftKings.

MLB Best Bets Today for Wednesday, Aug. 7

Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians over 7.5 runs (-118)

This will be the second game of a doubleheader.

Since the All-Star Break, the D-backs are averaging 6.25 runs per game and the Guardians are averaging 4.12. Sure the winds are blowing in a little bit, but Arizona has scored only 36.4% of its runs via home run- that ranks 27th in the league. In other words, I trust hitters on both sides of this game to find a way to score this afternoon.

The Guardians will start Carlos Carrasco at home. Carrasco has an ERA of 5.53 this season, and an xBA in the bottom 25% of the league. Since the All-Star Break, he has allowed 13 earned runs across this three starts, allowing hitters a .291 batting average and .595 SLG.

The Diamondbacks will start lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.

Rodriguez’s 3.30 ERA should be closed to 4.04, and that’s enough to make me think the Guardians can score a few before getting to the bullpen. Cleveland is top 12 in SLG, AVG, OPS, and ISO vs. left-handed pitching.

Games at Progressive field are averaging 8.95 runs this year, and Arizona has gone over the lister run total 56.4% of the time this year (62-48-3) while the Guardians have gone over 51.9% (55-51-6).

Kansas City Royals -1.5 (+145)

This is our bold pick of the day.

The Royals lost the first two of this series vs. the Red Sox, and I expect them to roar back today with a verifiable ace on the mound in Cole Ragans.

Both teams have been red hot since the All-Star Break. The Red Sox have scored an MLB–leading 6.65 runs per game while the Royals have scored 5.78.

However, Boston’s bullpen also has a 6.22 ERA in that timespan, and that should get them into trouble tonight vs. the Royals who dominate at home (36-24).

It’s been a bit bumpy for Ragans since the All-Star Break, but he still has an 3.36 ERA with a 2.82 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).

Kutter Crawford will get the ball for the visiting Red Sox. Crawford has also been very good this season with a 3.81 ERA, but that should be closer to 4.04, according to Statcast.

Crawford’s FIP is 4.75. The Royals can crush right-handed pitching.

Vinnie Pasquantino’s 68 RBI vs. righties ranks second only to Aaron Judge, while Bobby Witt Jr.’s 65 ranks third. No hitter has a better batting average than Witt vs. right-handed pitching (.345).

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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