Padres vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for NL Wild Card Game 1

Can the Cubs take care of business at home against the Padres?

Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson could be a sneaky home run pick on Tuesday. / Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2020, and they’ll be looking for their first postseason win since 2017 as they host the San Diego Padres in the NL Wild Card round.

The Cubs swept the Cardinals to finish the season, while the Padres swept the Diamondbacks as a part of a 7-1 stretch to end the regular season.

Who will stay hot in Game 1?

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Padres vs. Cubs on Tuesday afternoon.

Padres vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Padres -1.5 (+166)
• Cubs +1.5 (-205)

Moneyline

• Padres -103
• Cubs -118

Total

• 7 (Over -116/Under -105)

Padres vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

• Padres: Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA)
• Cubs: Shota Imanaga (9-8, 3.73 ERA)

Padres vs. Cubs How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, September 30
• Time: 3:08 p.m. ET
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Padres record: 90-72
• Cubs record: 92-70

Padres vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop Bets

Padres Best MLB Prop Bet

• Dansby Swanson to Hit a Home Run (+760)

The San Diego Padres are giving the ball to Nick Pivetta to start the postseason, and that could be a decision that haunts them. The righthander is a boom-or-bust type of pitcher who can rack up the strikeouts but also give up a few longballs.

Pivetta has struggled on the road this season, going 5-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 13 home runs allowed in 78.2 innings across 14 starts as opposed to 8-1 with a 2.36 ERA and just nine home runs allowed in 103 innings (17 starts) at home.

There may be a few batters worth looking at on the Cubs (Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong, namely), but playoff baseball provides opportunities for weird heroes, and Dansby Swanson can be just that.

Swanson has homered twice off of Pivetta in 34 at-bats in his career. One of those came on a cold spring day back on April 5 as Pivetta lasted just three innings in a loss at Wrigley Field. I’ll take a stab at Swanson coming up big at this +760 price.

Padres vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

The San Diego Padres won seven of their final eight games, but must head on the road to face off against the Chicago Cubs.

The Padres went just 38-43 on the road this season, including 23-29 as road underdogs, while the Cubs were 50-31 at home (46-24 as home favorites). San Diego also finished under .500 (24-26) against teams with a winning percentage of .540 or higher.

Perhaps most importantly, this is a bet fading Padres starter Nick Pivetta. He went 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.14 WHIP on the road this season, including just a three-inning outing (six hits, three runs) at Wrigley Field back on April 5.

Given the struggles of both the team and pitcher on the road, and the Cubs’ success at home, Chicago is worth a bet at this low price.

Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-118)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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