NBA Most Improved Player According to Kalshi Markets: Jalen Duran vs. Deni Avdija

Jalen Duren and Deni Avdija headline a tightening NBA Most Improved Player race, with Kalshi markets signaling a clear favorite as the regular season winds down.

Detroit Pistons center Jalen Duren (0) takes the floor during player introductions before their game against the Golden State Warriors at Little Caesars Arena. | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Most of the NBA’s major award races have started to crystallize from a market perspective. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has effectively separated himself in the MVP conversation, while JB Bickerstaff continues to gain ground on Joe Mazzulla in the Coach of the Year race. Victor Wembanyama is widely positioned as the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, and Kon Knueppel has taken firm control of the Rookie of the Year market—though Cooper Flagg remains within striking distance. Outside of a tightly contested Sixth Man of the Year race, most outcomes are beginning to look increasingly defined.

That brings us to one of the more fluid markets still in play: Most Improved Player. Last season, Dyson Daniels captured the award behind a breakout campaign driven by all-around production and elite defensive impact. He averaged a career-best 14.1 points, 5.9 boards, 4.4 assists, and over three steals per game. But who made that type of leap this season? Let’s take a look at the top contenders according to Kalshi’s prediction markets. 

Kalshi

Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons (52%)

Pistons big man Jalen Duren has reestablished himself as the frontrunner to win the Most Improved Player this season. While Jalen Johnson briefly gained traction during a midseason surge, a combination of injuries and uneven production has shifted momentum back toward Detroit’s fourth-year center, who has put together a statistically significant leap across the board. The talented youngster is averaging 19.2 points (7.4 more than last season), 10.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.9 steals, and 0.8 blocks. He's shooting just under 65% from the field and converting 73% of his attempts from the charity stripe. Even with some missed time, his overall body of work—and role as a key contributor on the top team in the Eastern Conference—has kept him firmly positioned at the top of the market.

With Cade Cunningham now sidelined for the remainder of the regular season, Duren’s role has expanded even further. Recent performances suggest a clear uptick in offensive responsibility, as Detroit leans on him more heavily in high-usage situations. In his last three games, he's averaging 27.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 1.0 assists per game. That added opportunity could further solidify his standing, as late-season production often plays a critical role in how this award is ultimately evaluated. Barring something tragic such a season-ending injury, this is Duren's award to lose. 

Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (27%)

Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija (8) looks on in the second half against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

A key variable in this market is the NBA’s 65-game eligibility threshold, introduced under the latest collective bargaining agreement. Deni Avdija has appeared in 56 games to this point, meaning he’ll need to suit up in nearly all of the Portland Trail Blazers’ remaining contests to qualify for postseason awards consideration.

Even if he clears that hurdle, availability may have already impacted his positioning. Avdija’s production has been strong across the board (24.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game), but market sentiment often extends beyond raw numbers. Team context matters. That’s where the gap becomes more pronounced. While Duren has played a central role in elevating the Detroit Pistons to the top of the Eastern Conference, Portland remains on the fringe of postseason contention.

From a trading standpoint, that contrast has driven a clear shift in pricing. Avdija’s individual performance keeps him relevant, but the combination of missed time and team trajectory has tilted the market decisively in Detroit’s favor. Traders should tread lightly. 

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