Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Chris Sale's Cy Young Form Continues)

Saturday's Major League Baseball slate features plenty of high powered action with playoff implications, but the star pitchers of the National League will take the mound.

Chris Sale is the front runner to win NL Cy Young, but Dylan Cease has been just as good over the past month or so as he looks to keep the Padres in the thick of it in the NL West race. Can both pitchers help improve their respective team's standing on Saturday with another gem?

Here's how we are betting Saturday's big league card.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Mariners vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-160)

The Pirates snapped a 10 game losing streak on Friday, but I expect the team’s losing ways to continue against the Mariners due to its starting pitcher.

Bailey Falter has an xERA, xBA and strikeout percentage in the bottom 10 percentile in the big leagues this season. The left hander’s xERA is more than one run higher than his actual ERA (5.15 vs. 4.07) setting up for a bounceback effort from the Mariners lineup.

Yankees vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Tigers (+165)

The Tigers are a limited lineup, but I can’t trust Yankees’ starter Carlos Rodon on Saturday to hold up his end of the bargain. The southpaw is getting crushed by hard contact due to a ninth percentile exit velocity and a 24th percentile hard-hit rate.

The Yankees have firepower with the likes of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, but the Tigers get the nod as big underdogs as a fade of Rodon.

Blue Jays vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cubs (-170)

It’s been an up and down year for Justin Steele after a Cy Young worthy season in 2023, but I like him to lead the Cubs to a win on Saturday against a Blue Jays offense that has struggled against lefties all season, 24th in OPS.

Steele’s xERA indicates he should be posting better numbers than his surface level marks, 3.16 ERA against a 2.93 xERA, and the Blue Jays offense sets him up for success.

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+160)

The Marlins are a live underdog on Saturday against the struggling Luis Severino, who has a 6.00 ERA since the All-Star break spanning five starts. Severino has been touched up by a diminished offspeed pitch arsenal that has led to more balls in play.

Miami’s offense is limited, but this underdog price is too attractive to ignore against a struggling pitcher.

Diamondbacks vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rays (+100)

Jeffrey Springs continues to be stretched out, pitching five innings in his last two starts and is coming off his finest yet, striking out eight batters while allowing one earned run against the Orioles.

The Diamondbacks are the second best hitting team against lefty pitching, so Springs must be at his best, but I’m going to give the nod to the slight home underdog.

Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Phillies (-205)

The Phillies are the best hitting team against left handed pitching, so I will always look its way against a southpaw, including Saturday against MacKenzie Gore.

Royals vs. Reds Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (-130)

The Royals are a bottom 10 hitting team on the road this season and against lefty pitching, making for a tough matchup against the Reds, who will start promising southpaw Nick Lodolo (3.99 ERA).

Red Sox vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Orioles (-125)

After the Red Sox won a chaotic 12-10 matchup against the Orioles on Friday night, I’ll side with Baltimore at home in the third meeting of four in this weekend set.

Both pitchers have questionable metrics, Brayan Bello of the Red Sox and Orioles prospect Cade Povich each have ERA’s north of 4.50, but it’s Povich’s ability to pitch to soft contact (83rd percentile) that makes me bullish he can limit the damage against a loaded Boston lineup.

Twins vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (+110)

This is too much respect for the current form of Rangers’ starter Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 6.58 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break.

The Twins have proven to be the better team while the Rangers struggles continue, losers of eight of 10. Give me the underdog.

Giants vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+105)

The Giants remain in the Wild Card hunt, making for a pivotal series against its cross-town rival Athletics.

However, Giants starter Hayden Birdsong has really struggled since the All-Star break, posting a 7.27 ERA in four starts while ranking in the bottom 10th percentile in hard-hit rate and barrel percentage.

The A’s can hit for power, seventh in OPS since the All-Star break, so I’m trusting the home team at plus odds.

White Sox vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-395)

The Astros are massive favorites at home, and it’s tough to look past the discrepancy between the two teams with Hunter Brown (3.96 ERA) set to start for the Astros against Chris Flexen (5.34 ERA).

Guardians vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Brewers (-115)

I’ll side with the hard throwing Freddy Peralta and the Brewers at home against the Guardians.

The right hander has been slightly unlucky this season, posting a 4.11 ERA against a 3.90 xERA despite ranking in the 88th percentile in strikeout rate.

Against a Guardians team that is bottom 10 in OPS since the All-Star break, I like Milwaukee to keep overachieving as moneyline favorites this season (37-28) and as a great bet at home (36-24).

Dodgers vs. Cardinals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Cardinals (+120)

As the depth of the Dodgers pitching staff gets tested, I believe the team is quite vulnerable with the likes of Bobby Miller on the mound. Miller will be called up for the first time in a month and averages about three innings per start.

With more variance involved, I’ll take a flier on the Cardinals as home underdogs.

Padres vs. Rockies Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-205)

Dylan Cease has been at his best since the All-Star break, including tossing a no-hitter last month, which has helped lower his ERA to 0.98. He has allowed three earned runs in five starts with a WHIP of 0.72.

I like him to limit the power of the Rockies at Coors Field and for San Diego to get a routine win in a crowded NL West race.

Braves vs. Angels Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-225)

Chris Sale should further his NL Cy Young case on Saturday against a sputtering Angels team that is 26th in OPS in the month of August.

Meanwhile, Griffin Canning should be touched up early and often by the Braves lineup that is starting to find its stride once again in the heat of an NL Wild Card race.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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