Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Oct. 23

The Thunder are road favorites on Thursday.

The Oklahoma City Thunder and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are favored on Thursday. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

An NBA Finals rematch kicks off Thursday’s NBA action, as the 1-0 Oklahoma City Thunder hit the road to play the Indiana Pacers in what is Indy’s season opener.

The Pacers are one of two teams (the Denver Nuggets are the other) making their 2025-26 season debut on Thursday, but they’ll have a much different look than they did in the NBA Finals last season.

Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) is out for the season and Myles Turner is no longer with the franchise, as he signed with the Milwaukee Bucks in the offseason. To make matters worse, NBA Finals hero T.J. McConnell is out to start the season with a hamstring injury.

So, the Pacers are extremely shorthanded against the defending champs, who are dealing with their own injury issues, as All-NBA win Jalen Williams (wrist) did not play in the season opener on Tuesday.

After going to double overtime in their win over the Houston Rockets, the Thunder are hoping to have a much easier game on Thursday as road favorites.

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to bet on the prop market and my prediction for Thursday’s Finals rematch. 

Thunder vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder -8.5 (-108)
• Pacers +8.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Thunder: -345
• Pacers: +275

Total

• 228.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Pacers How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 23
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Thunder record: 1-0
• Pacers record: 0-0

Thunder vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Jalen Williams – out
• Isaiah Joe – out
• Nikola Topic – out
• Thomas Sorber – out
• Kenrich Williams –out
• Alex Caruso -- out
• Lu Dort -- questionable
• Cason Wallace -- questionable

Pacers Injury Report

• Tyrese Haliburton – out
• TJ McConnell – out
• Quenton Jackson – out
• Kam Jones – out

Thunder vs. Pacers Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Chet Holmgren OVER 17.5 Points (-110)

Thunder star Chet Holmgren had a massive showing on opening night, scoring 28 points on 11-of-17 shooting from the field (2-for-5 from 3) in the win over Houston.

Most of Holmgren’s impact as a scorer came in the first three quarters, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took over the game in the fourth and the overtime periods. 

Holmgren cleared this total twice against Indiana in the Finals last season, and he’s going to play a bigger role on offense until Jalen Williams (wrist) is able to return. 

Thunder vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

Even though the Pacers are a shell of themselves from the 2024-25 season, I think they can cover the spread in this matchup.

Indiana plays a frenetic style that can get the Thunder out of a rhythm on offense, and without Jalen Williams, OKC has way less margin for error on the offensive end. 

OKC was trailing by as many as 13 at home on Tuesday night, and needed two overtimes to win by just one point as a 6.5-point favorite. There could be a fatigue factor heading into Thursday, and I think it’s a stretch to ask the Thunder to win by nearly double digits.

Indiana was one of the best teams in the NBA as an underdog last season, and it still returns some core pieces like Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Benedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith and Obi Toppin.

OKC probably wins this game, but I don’t see a blow out happening with the Thunder on the road. 

Pick: Pacers +8.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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