Bubble & Bracket Watch: Badgers making a final case for No. 1 seed
Selection Sunday is here, and even with just five games on the schedule, the day’s action could have an effect on the field of 68. Connecticut looms as a bid stealer in the AAC championship, but the very top of the bracket remains in flux, as well. The identity of all four No. 1 seeds won’t be known until the Big Ten tournament crown is awarded to either Wisconsin or Michigan State.
[daily_cut.college basketball]If it were up to the college basketball viewing public, and not the Selection Committee, Wisconsin may already have a top seed, and it certainly wouldn’t be in the same region as Kentucky. The Badgers are widely seen as one of the four best teams in the country, as well as a prime challenger to the Wildcats. They’re one of the few teams with the size and scoring ability necessary to knock off Kentucky, which will undoubtedly be the No. 1 overall seed when the brackets are revealed, regardless of what happens in the SEC championship.
Purely from a resume standpoint, the Badgers may not be on the top line just yet. While they have eight top-50 wins, there isn’t one victory that really jumps off the page. Their best win in terms of RPI was over Oklahoma in the Battle 4 Atlantis back in November. The Badgers also beat tournament teams Georgetown, Iowa (twice), Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue (twice), but their bona fides for a No. 1 seed aren’t up to par with Virginia’s, the team they would unseat, just yet.
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That would change with a win against Michigan State on Sunday. If the Badgers present a resume to the committee that includes a 31-3 overall record, top-three RPI (they’re third at the start of the day, behind Kentucky and Kansas), and a sweep of the Big Ten regular season and tournament championships, they would be awfully hard to keep off the top of a region. Should they beat the Spartans, expect to see the Badgers as the No. 1 seed in the West Region and likely the No. 4 overall seed, which would set up the potential for a rematch of last year’s Final Four classic with Kentucky.
Last Four In
1. Indiana: The Hoosiers are one of the last four teams into the field, but they remain dangerous. This team beat Maryland, SMU, Butler and Ohio State in the regular season. They became one of the last four in after Wyoming won the Mountain West tournament.
2. LSU.The Tigers made their own bed by losing to Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals, and it's the bed of one of the last four teams in the field of 68. Now they'll have to sleep in it, thought it probably won't provide much rest leading up to Selection Sunday.
3.Boise State. The Broncos should be in the field of 68, thanks primarily to a sweep of San Diego State, but they don't have an overwhelming RPI ranking and, after losing to Wyoming on Friday, have five losses to sub-80 teams.
4. Miami: The Hurricanes fought for their tournament lives in an impressive second-half comeback against Notre Dame in the ACC quarterfinals, but the Irish counterpunched and sent Miami to the very brink of the at-large pool. They’re one of our last two teams in for now.
First Four Out
1. Mississippi: Wyoming became the first bid stealer of the season by beating San Diego State in the Mountain West championship. That made Mississippi the first team on the outside of the tournament field.
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2. BYU: After losing to Gonzaga in the WCC championship game, the Cougars can only hope they did enough to impress the selection committee. The bet here is they won't be happy with their fate.
3. Tulsa: Heading into the AAC tourney, the Golden Hurricane had hopes for an at-large bid, but a loss to Connecticut in the conference semis likely relegated them to the NIT. Despite a pair of wins against Temple, Tulsa's resume falls short of one of the 36 best at-large teams.
4. UCLA: Realistically, the Bruins needed to beat Arizona on Friday to earn an at-large bid. There's an outside chance that the committee looks more favorably on their resume than we do, but Steve Alford's team is likely headed to the NIT.
Next Four Out
These teams are extreme longshots to make the field, but we’ll keep them here in case something unexpected happens.
1. Illinois: That the Illini made it back to this spot should tell you just how ugly things were on the bubble this week. Illinois will be one of the highest-seeded teams in the NIT.
2. Richmond: The Spiders swept VCU in the regular season, but were eliminated by the Rams in the A-10 tournament. They're a couple signature wins shy of an at-large berth.
3. Texas A&M: The Aggies’ at-large case blew up in the second half against Auburn on Thursday. After falling to the Tigers, the Aggies no longer have a shot for an at-large bid. Two wins over an LSU team that is just barely off the bubble itself doesn’t get you a dance card.
4. Murray State: The Racers had a great regular season, but they didn’t play anyone notable in the non-conference, meaning they really had to win the Ohio Valley tournament to get a bid. They didn't, so they won't.
Sunday’s Bubble Games
Connecticut vs. SMU, 3:15 p.m. ET
The Bracket
MIDWEST | EAST |
1 Kentucky16 Robert Morris/UAB
8 N.C. State9 Ohio State
4 West Virginia13 Northeastern
5 Providence12 Miami/Indiana
3 Notre Dame14 E. Washington
6 SMU11 Georgia
7 Xavier10 Dayton
2 Kansas15 Lafayette
Villanova1Coastal Carolina16
Michigan State8 Cincinnati9
Oklahoma4Georgia State13
Louisville5Stephen F. Austin12
Maryland3 Albany14
SDSU6 Boise State/LSU11
St. John's7Texas10
Virginia 2Texas So. 15
1 Wisconsin16 North Florida
8 VCU9 Oklahoma State
4 North Carolina13 Buffalo
5 Arkansas12 Wofford
3 Baylor14 UC Irvine
6 Butler11 Davidson
7 Wichita State10 Colorado State
2 Arizona15 New Mexico St.
Duke 1Delaware St./Manhattan 16
Oregon 8Purdue 9
Northern Iowa 4Harvard 13
Georgetown 5Valparaiso 12
Iowa State 3NDSU 14
Utah 6Wyoming 11
Iowa 7 Temple10
Gonzaga 2Belmont 15
WEST | SOUTH |
The Bubble
American
Locks: SMU, Cincinnati, Temple
IN THE MIX
Tulsa (22-10, RPI: 41, SOS: 91): Tulsa got two wins in the AAC tournament, but they were over Tulane and Houston. After losing to Connecticut in the semifinals, the Golden Hurricane will likely end up on the wrong side of the bubble.
Atlantic 10
IN THE MIX
Richmond (19-13, RPI: 59, SOS: 51): The Spiders built a decent at-large case during the second half of the A-10 schedule, sweeping VCU and splitting with Davidson. We have them as one of the First Four Out of the field, so they likely had to impress in the conference tourney, and perhaps get some help in other pockets of the country. They nearly got a third win against VCU but fell just short, losing by three. They'll present an interesting case to the selection committee but it probably won't be enough.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Notre Dame, Virginia
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IN THE MIX
Miami (21-12, RPI: 61, SOS: 67): And now, the Hurricanes wait. They rallied back from an 18-point halftime deficit to actually take a slim lead on Notre Dame in the second half on Thursday, but the Irish got it together and pulled away in the game’s waning minutes. Miami remains one of our last four teams in the tournament, but it is going to land in the 34-to-38 range among at-large teams. That’s the most uneasy place to be leading into Selection Sunday.
Big 12
Locks:Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas
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IN THE MIX
Oklahoma State (18-13, RPI: 48, SOS: 10): The Cowboys should be safe thanks to six top-50 wins, including a victory over Kansas and a sweep of Baylor, but they sure made their lives a whole lot more tenuous over the last month. They've now lost seven of their last eight, including a 15-point defeat to Oklahoma in their first and only Big 12 tournament game. They likely did enough to earn an at-large bid, but they may not get a ton of sleep until Sunday night.
Big East
Locks:Butler, Georgetown, Providence, St. John’s, Villanova, Xavier
Big Ten
Locks:Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
IN THE MIX
Indiana (20-13, RPI: 53, SOS: 31): A win over Maryland in the Big Ten quarterfinals would have locked Indiana into the NCAA tournament, but it was hardly a must-win game. This team boasts wins over SMU, Butler, Maryland and Ohio State this season. No matter the Hoosiers late-season slide in the conference, they’ll hear their name called on Sunday.
Purdue (21-12, RPI: 56, SOS: 67): The Boilermakers may have fallen to Wisconsin in the Big Ten semis, but this team is safely into the dance after what it did during the regular season. Not only can they rest easy heading into Selection Sunday, they'll be a dangerous team no matter where they end up being seeded.
Illinois (19-13, RPI: 71, SOS: 60): When the Illini's schedule stepped up in weight class over the final three weeks of the season, they just couldn't hang. They went 2-4 in their last six regular season games, losing to Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue, while beating sub-.500 teams Northwestern and Nebraska. They needed, at the very least, one win in the Big Ten tournament. Instead, they got run out of the United Center by Michigan in an 18-point loss. They're almost certainly headed to the NIT.
Mountain West
Locks:San Diego State
IN THE MIX
Colorado State (27-6, RPI: 26, SOS: 121): While the Rams have been in the field of every edition of our Bracket Watch this season, they can’t breathe easy just yet. They have only two top-50 wins on the year, one fewer than their number of sub-100 losses. After clearing the bad-loss hurdle by beating Fresno State in the conference tournament quarterfinals, the Rams should be safe, but stranger things have happened.
Boise State (25-8, RPI: 38, SOS: 117): The Broncos should be on tourney-bound, but there won’t be many easy moments between now and Selection Sunday after they lost to Wyoming in the Mountain West tournament. Their sweep of San Diego State, along with a third top-30 win over Colorado State, should be enough to get them an at-large bid, but they’re not safe by any means.
Pac-12
IN THE MIX
UCLA (20-12, RPI: 65, SOS: 43): The Bruins had a lead over Arizona and an at-large berth in their sights with 11 minutes left in the Pac-12 semifinals, but the Wildcats turned the tables and held off a late charge to win 70-64. The Bruins will wait impatiently for Selection Sunday, but the bet here is they just don’t have enough for an at-large bid.
SEC
Locks:Arkansas, Kentucky, Georgia
IN THE MIX
LSU (22-10, RPI: 49, SOS: 80): Even after losing to Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals, LSU should be in decent shape heading into Selection Sunday, They have three top-50 wins, and won at West Virginia, Arkansas and Mississippi. What’s more, they have an impressive 13-5 record against the top 100. With all that in their favor, as well as teams that entered championship week on the bubble like Illinois, Texas A&M and Mississippi falling early, the Tigers should earn an at-large invite.
Mississippi (20-12, RPI: 50, SOS: 48): Six weeks ago, the Rebels weren’t really all that close to the bubble. Now they’re in a whole lot of trouble after losing to South Carolina in the SEC tournament on Thursday. They may have wins over Arkansas, Cincinnati and Oregon, but they have five losses outside the top 80, three of which were at home to teams with RPIs worse than 100.
Other conferences
Locks: Gonzaga (West Coast), Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), Wichita State (Missouri Valley)
IN THE MIX
BYU (West Coast, 24-9, RPI: 37, SOS: 71): After losing to Gonzaga in the WCC championship, the Cougars have to hope they did enough this season to earn an at-large bid. Their regular season win over Gonzaga was their only top-50 win, and they had just four against the top 100. Three combined losses to Pepperdine and San Diego may prove too much for an invite. More likely than not, BYU is going to be one of the most dangerous teams in the NIT.
