ESPN's FPI Projects Arizona State's 2022 Record

The Sun Devils' chances of making noise in the Pac-12 are slim, according to advanced simulations of next year's schedule.

Author:
Donnie Druin
Publish date:
Apr 19, 2022 12:46 PM EDT

Spring practices are beginning to reach their final conclusions across the country, as this upcoming weekend will mark the end of the road for nearly every Power Five team (besides Oregon, which wraps up its practice period on April 30).

Count Arizona State as one of the programs that are reduced to weight-room activities until preseason work commences later in the summer.

Despite being out of action, the Sun Devils provide fans and media with no shortage of story lines to follow until then, with various topics ranging from ASU's quarterback situation to what the respective new offensive and defensive coordinators will devise on the field.

Heading into head coach Herm Edwards' fifth season at Arizona State, expectations remain high for leading his team to a successful season.

"Successful" bends and stretches depending on who you talk to at ASU.

Some have expectations of reaching new heights in the Pac-12 with dreams of appearing in the Rose Bowl, while others would be just fine with defeating Arizona and potentially playing spoiler to any conference giants down the stretch.

Outside factors (such as the NCAA's investigation which still has an unclear timetable) also follow Arizona State heading into 2022.

When it comes to ESPN's College Football Power Index for the 2022 season, aspirations for the Sun Devils may be tempered.

ASU has tough outs in Oklahoma State and Utah in the beginning stages of the season, with five of their final eight games taking place on the road.

As data and metrics become more advanced, tools such as FPI have become increasingly more popular. ESPN defines their FPI tool as the following:

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule."

Arizona State's FPI currently sits at 6.5, the fifth-highest in the Pac-12 behind Utah, UCLA, Oregon and USC.

ASU's FPI ranks as No. 41 in the country. For reference, Utah's FPI of 12.7 ranks at No. 15. Alabama leads the nation with an FPI of 28.9.

ESPN projects Arizona State's record next season to be 7.7-4.5. The FPI says records may not sum to a whole number because of differing number of games played in each simulation.

In each full season, ASU has hit at least seven wins since 2017.

No team in the Pac-12 is given greater than a 1.4% chance to go undefeated, although the Sun Devils are only slotted a 0.1% chance to run the table.

There is good news, however. Arizona State's chances of being bowl eligible are much greater with a 91.9% chance to hit at least six wins in 2022.

ASU also has a 16.1% chance to win the Pac-12 South and a 7.5% chance to win the entire conference. For comparison, Oregon has the highest odds at 33.3% to win the Pac-12. Arizona State hasn't won nine games in a season since 2014.

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