Auburn so hand-crafted for Hogs defense that Petrino's job hangs on win

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — There are two camps in the world of Arkansas football.

There are those who prefer the Sam Pittman way of playing a potential College Football Playoff team to a single score game only to be driving, despite coordinator Bobby Petrino shutting down the offense in the second half, for what appears to be an inevitable win. Then, with hope at its highest, the players fumble away a win at the last possible fraction of a second to crush the hearts of Hogs fans.

Then, there are those who prefer the Petrino way where the offense does its best to put points on the board in the second half so the game can get within a score while the game is already put away, avoiding the threat of breaking fans' spirits through making them think a victory was at hand. It's just a matter of personal taste for either side.

However, the one stat both coaches faced is the one that begins and ends with a zero — 0.0. That's the number of wins against teams that have been ranked at some point this season, which are the last five.

This team has run off five straight without tasting victory. They're still competing each week, which gives fans a certain level of solace, but the overall wins are equal to those of a Chad Morris season at this point.

The good news is Auburn comes in unranked with its leader twisting in the wind after begging for a vote of confidence that never came. It was truly a surprise Tigers coach Hugh Freeze made it to this weekend as the coach.

However, that's probably more of a product of the transfer portal opening in the event of a firing rather than faith Freeze can turn it around.

It's late enough in the season now that players might be tempted to go ahead and jump in as an effort to protect their health, thus maximizing their value. Playing November with a lame duck coach and no prospect of winning isn't going to do anything to entice a player to risk blowing a knee, which is why it's late enough in the season for it to no longer be held against them if they get in the portal.

Still, this could be a Mississippi State scenario. Much like Florida Gators coach Billy Napier, whether Freeze knocks off Arkansas or not, it may end in a firing either way.

Still, that doesn't mean odds aren't much higher this game ends in a big Razorbacks win. If there is a cure for a woeful offense, it's the Hogs' defense.

Auburn averages 13.5 points per game in SEC play, which includes a double overtime. That's over 20 points per game less than Arkansas, which would suggest a strong possibility of a blowout.

However, those games came against Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas A&M and Missouri. Those are dramatically better defenses.

There is little to suggest Arkansas can get a lot of defensive stops, even against a sputtering Auburn offense. The one glimmer of hope is the slight change in defensive philosophy since Petrino took over.

In the Pittman era, the goal for that side of the ball was to get stops and it was schemed up where if players weren't where they were supposed to be, it led to an easy touchdown. The current defense isn't predicated on creating big stops.

Instead, it is stripped down to the point of making scoring simply take longer with a bend and pray it doesn't break approach. The only way this defense is designed to get a stop is if the other team beats itself, but it's going to take a few more plays on average before the points go on the board.

That means the only way a stop happens is by way of either a fumble, interception, a penalty or a turf slip that causes a team to have to hand the ball over to the Hogs. So far, that has only yielded a tiny handful of possessions without the offense having to respond to scores.

Hogs fans have seen enough to know this team isn't going to hit someone hard enough to force a fumble and defensive backs aren't going to turn their heads in interception situations, so turnovers are essentially out the window.

That basically leaves it to penalties. This is where Arkansas finally has a chance.

Like many teams that struggle, the Tigers commit a lot of self-inflicted mistakes. They currently average eight penalties per game overall for right at 70 yards.

Freeze's team has committed 38 penalties in its last four games, giving up 297 yards of earned field position. Against Power Four teams as a whole, the Tigers have 47 penalties for 380 yards in five games.

That's an average of 9.4 penalties per game and a loss of 76 yards. That's enough to give up at least five or six drives against the Hogs, which is way more than Arkansas has been gifted in this long streak of games against potential playoff teams.

The offense has been able to keep the Razorbacks in games despite only forcing one or two stops per half. Getting the normal three or four stops the defense stumbles into, with five or six stops thrown on top, means if the Hogs can be their usual selves on the offensive side, a win is finally going to come.

That's something that's hard to imagine, even against an SEC team that has a quarterback who can't throw the ball, but it's a reality. If this defense is going to do enough to get a win the rest of the season, this is the perfect scenario.

No team remaining on this schedule is more crafted to not be able to run over Arkansas and score on pretty much every possession. Special teams might even get enough opportunities on punt return to finally display the magic that made returner Kam Shanks an All-American.

If Saturday doesn't happen for the Hogs, then the most ardent of Petrino fans can kiss that dream goodbye. At that point, the coaching search picks up a lot of steam looking elsewhere.

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