ESPN predicts winner of Arkansas, Ole Miss rivalry game Saturday in Oxford

Hogs given chance to knock off ranked Rebels team after embarrassing showing in 2024

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green after scoring against Arkansas State at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-allHOGS Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas goes into Week Two undefeated and looking for blood against one of its most hated rivals Ole Miss.

Sixth-year coach Sam Pittman probably had this game circled after the way the Rebels embarrassed his Razorbacks at home last season.

The Razorbacks have started the season with a 2-0 record overall following a dominant victory in Little Rock over Arkansas State 56-14.

With back-to-back 40-point victories, Arkansas ventures to Oxford, Mississippi while seeing its analytical stock rise, according to ESPN's Football Power Index.

What ESPN Thinks

Arkansas ranked just outside the top 25 ahead of its monumental Diamond State Showdown in War Memorial and left no doubt, which led to the Razorbacks gaining nearly 10 spots in ESPN's rating system to No. 19.

While the leap appears large, it only shoots the Razorbacks to No. 10 in the SEC but six points behind its upcoming opponent Ole Miss that sits No. 4 in the league.

Arkansas Razorbacks linebacker Xavian Sorey returning an interceptions against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-allHOGS Images

ESPN FPI (SEC) Rankings

1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Ole Miss
5. Tennessee
6. Auburn
7. Missouri
8. Texas A&M
9. LSU
10. Arkansas
11. South Carolina
12. Oklahoma
13. Florida
14. Vanderbilt
15. Kentucky
16. Mississippi State

For Arkansas, its overall record projection has risen to a 7-5 record overall with a 79% chance Pittman leads his team to bowl eligibility for the fifth time in six seasons.

Likely due to its strength of schedule, the Razorbacks are given a 17.8% chance to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff and nearly a 2% shot of making at least the National Championship Game.

The chances of making the College Football Playoff are now at 18.9% according to ESPN, and there’s a 1.7% chance the Hogs make the National Championship game.

Arkansas Razorbacks defensive lineman Cam Ball against the Arkansas State Red Wolves at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-allHOGS Images

There's a thin line for every SEC team must walk as ESPN projects each to win at least 5.1 wins with Florida, Mississippi State and Kentucky on the outside looking in if the goal is bowl eligibility.

The Razorbacks are given just a 26.3% chance of walking away from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium Saturday night with a victory.

SP+ ratings is an analytical system updated each week by Bill Connelly, who bases his early season ratings on preseason projections, including special teams ratings. Over the course of the season, his preseason data is slowly phased out in favor of in-season date each week.

According to the SP+ expert computer model, the Ole Miss Rebels are expected to win by just over 10 points Saturday night at Vaught Hemingway Stadium by a final score of 32-22.

What Kiffin's Saying

Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is fully healthy this go around against the Rebels and could be set for a huge day if he makes the right decisions in the pass and run games.

Through two weeks, Arkansas' senior captain 753 yards and 11 touchdowns and hasn't played in the fourth quarter of either game so far.

Ole Miss Rebels coach Lane Kiffin on the sidelines against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

Kiffin showed respect for Green Monday during his press conference previewing the Razorbacks.

“Really dynamic. First of all, he’s dynamic, you know, athlete from a height, weight, speed standpoint to be able to run like he can, and I don’t think he was fully healthy in our game a year ago. He’s a problem," Kiffin said.

"He’s a lot to deal with and I think kind of similar that way to the South Carolina quarterback, LaNorris Sellers. Here’s two guys that are really hard to game plan for because they’re big and they can throw and run.”

Ole Miss posted 63 points last season on Arkansas' defense, but made the neccessary changes during the offseason in hope to improve.

Kiffin has taken note of the change and believes that is why the SEC continues to be among the deepest conferences to compete against each week.

"Everybody has the ability now with the portal and money to fix their problems," Kiffin said. "I think you're seeing that in the [SEC]. It's why our bottom of our conference is different from everybody else because they fixed their problems. These guys have a lot of new players that they've plugged into places where I think they probably wanted to get better and they look like it."

Game Information

Arkansas vs. Ole Miss
Kickoff Time: 6 p.m. CT
Venue: Vaught Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
TV Channel: ESPN
Radio: Arkansas Razorbacks Sports Network
Series Record: Arkansas leads 37-31-1