ESPN's prediction for Arkansas, Memphis game Saturday might surprise some

Razorbacks might be touchdown favorites, computers don't see it that way

Arkansas Razorback running back Mike Washington Jr. (4) runs the ball for a score during the second quarter against the Ole Miss Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas goes into Week 3 looking to rebound from a road loss to Ole Miss last Saturday, but nobody thinks it will be easy.

One of the more interesting tidbits going in is Arkansas is behind in the series overall, 3-2, but have won each of the last two meetings although the two programs haven't met since 1999.

The Razorbacks have a history of scheduling competitive Group of Five conference teams early in the regular season, notably Cincinnati in 2022 after a College Football Playoff bid.

There is still hope within the Arkansas locker room in the early going that one loss will not define the outcome of its season.

Arkansas Razorback wide receiver Raylen Sharpe (6) runs after a catch during the fourth quarter against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

"I don't think anything's changed," Arkansas tight end Rohan Jones said Tuesday evening. "I feel like we're still positive. We know it was a hiccup along the road, but we just got to keep playing it one week at a time, and just keep striving."

The Razorbacks will take a game-by-game approach moving forward with a good chance of walking out of Memphis victorious, according to ESPN analytics.

What ESPN Thinks

After one week at No. 19 in ESPN's Football Power Index poll, the team dropped a few spots to No. 24 following the Ole Miss loss.

The Tigers should be a viable opponent this weekend as they sit at No. 36 based off analytical data, and are projected to win 10-games for the third straight season.

While the Razorbacks were in the Top 10 among SEC teams in the FPI ranking, they fell two spots behind Auburn and Vanderbilt, likely because their defensive efficiency score of 45.2 is nearly 20 points lower than any other conference team.

ESPN FPI (SEC) Rankings

1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Texas
4. Ole Miss
5. Tennessee
6. Missouri
7. Oklahoma
8. Texas A&M
9. LSU
10. Auburn
11. Vanderbilt
12. Arkansas
13. Florida
14. South Carolina
15. Kentucky
16. Mississippi State

For Arkansas, the overall record projection dripped from 7-5 to barely above 6-6 following its loss to the Rebels, but they still have a 69.1% chance of making a bowl game.

The Razorbacks chances of making the College Football Playoff were virtually cut in half from 17.8% prior to last week's loss to just 9.4% ahead of the Memphis game. Should the Hogs drop Saturday's game to Memphis, it could do serious damage to its analytical resume moving forward.

Not only have Arkansas' chances of making the playoff dropped, its chances of winning the national championship dropped from 1.7% to 0.2%, which actually backs athletics director Hunter Yurachek's claim that his program is not set up to win a championship in football.

There's a thin line for every SEC team must to walk as ESPN projects each to win at least 5.1 wins with South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State and Kentucky on the outside looking in if the goal is bowl eligibility.

According to the SP+ expert computer model, Arkansas is given a 51% chance of defeating Memphis this weekend by a score of 31-30, although the Razorbacks are considered seven-point spread favorites.

SP+ ratings is an analytical system updated each week by Bill Connelly, who bases his early season ratings on preseason projections, including special teams ratings. Over the course of the season, his preseason data is slowly phased out in favor of in-season date each week.

What Pittman's Saying

One of Arkansas coach Sam Pittman's favorite sayings is "If we got Taylen Green then we got a chance and nobody else has him and that's true." He reiterated that point Monday.

A week after Green passed for 300 yards, rushed for more 100 yards and became the first Razorback quarterback to record that mark in a single-game.

While Green put up monster numbers against Ole Miss, the Razorbacks still lost the game mostly because the defense couldn't figure out ways to stop back-up quarterback Trindidad Chambliss from putting the unit on skates.

Arkansas Razorback quarterback Taylen Green (10) passes the ball during warm ups prior to the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

"We've got the talent to be much better on defense," Pittman said. "We've got to simplify some things and we've got to let these guys play. Someone's going to miss a tackle. Okay, that's fine, but let's don't miss 10. Somebody's going to miss the tackle. Let's line up and make them earn what they (get), let's don't cut somebody loose. So, we've got to be a little simpler there."

The Memphis offense has a physical rushing attack which averages 218 yards per game (No. 26 FBS) and has already scored 11 touchdowns this season (No. 4 FBS).

What's Silverfield saying?

The Tigers sixth-year coach has kept Memphis in the conversation as one of the best Group of Five programs during his time with the program without a single losing season and four bowl wins.

His team is now tasked with stopping one of the best quarterbacks and true athletes in the country in Arkansas' Green, who was featured on the Heisman Trophy podcast this week.

“He’s a fantastic player," Silverfield said of Green. "Anybody that watches his film, especially this year, you’ll sit there and say, ‘wow’. He’s probably a Heisman candidate quarterback. The numbers he’s putting up, they’re almost video game like numbers. He’s very talented.

"He’s their leading rusher. He’s their leading passer. They’ve had three straight games of 500 yards of offense. I think they’re 11-of-11 in red zone for touchdowns. He’s been very dynamic. He’s got great touch on the football. He commands their offense. He understands what Coach Petrino’s asking, so he can do it all. I wish I didn’t have to say that, but, we’re going to have our hands full, but we’re excited to prepare for him and get ready for him on Saturday.”

Memphis Tigers coach Ryan Silverfield looks on before the game against the Chattanooga Mocs at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

While Silverfield wouldn't give Arkansas any bulletin board material this week in preparation for Memphis, he did acknowledge just how big of a game is is for his program.

"I had someone say, 'Hey, this is the most important game of the season,'" Silverfield said. "Yeah, it is because it’s the next one. And we talked all along that the goal is to win the conference championship.

"We’re very fortunate. This is a nationally televised game, for the entire country that has the opportunity to see the Memphis Tigers, see how we’re all in and what we’re all about. Our guys will be plenty motivated. I told them yesterday post practice, I said, 'If I need to give you a rah-rah speech or ask you to come watch more film and take care of your bodies, then I’ve got the wrong young men. We’ve got to do a better job recruiting.'”

Game Information

Arkansas vs. Memphis
Kickoff Time: 11 p.m.
Venue: Simmons Bank Libery Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
TV Channel: ABC
Radio: Arkansas Razorbacks Sports Network
Series Record: Memphis leads 3-2