Other side of Hogs' offensive coin projects less optimism for SEC success

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Football, much like most sports, sets itself up for stats to be used to fit whatever narrative someone wants to follow, which can often lead to a lot of confusion for fans.

For instance, as reported earlier this week, Arkansas is one of five SEC teams with a returning quarterback, which is often a key sign of increased odds for success. Beyond it being a typical indicator of good things to come, Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green found himself near the top of several statistical categories in comparison to the other returners.

However, as big of a positive as it is for Hogs fans to see their quarterback return for a second year with the same coordinator who hand-picked Green for the job, there's always another way to look at the other side of the data.

Despite the running wisdom that the first year of install for a Bobby Petrino offense can be a bit tricky because of its complexity and the need for it to burn into a quarterback's brain to the point where it becomes muscle memory more than thinking, Arkansas managed to finish No. 2 in the SEC in total offense in 2024.

Only Ole Miss put together more production per game than the Hogs, which is supposed to bode well for how explosive the Razorbacks should be after a full year and change to master Petrino's offense. The leap from 459.2 yards to the 500+ range it will take to challenge the Rebels for SEC supremacy should be a possibility considering the usual second year jump that often takes place under the perceived offensive wizard.

In 2008, Petrino's first season as head coach, the offense put up 373 yards per game and scored 263 points. The following season, that number ballooned to over 427 yards per game and 466 points.

By the time Ryan Mallett became the first Razorback to quarterback two seasons under Petrino in 2010, the Hogs were up to 482.5 yards per game and 468 points.

All indications are that it should be feasible for Arkansas to make a sizable jump from 30.9 points per game, good enough for sixth in the SEC, to the mid to high 30s it will take to lead the league. Except for that one important data point that isn't showing up in the stat line.

See, while Green is coming back as a master of the Petrino offense, he makes up 50% of the returning projected starters on offense. A high percentage of last season's offense either finally aged out of the system or needed to be processed to go elsewhere so the team could move forward with athletes considered more SEC ready.

Other than Fernando Carmona, not a single starter from the double-overtime loss at Oklahoma State is back on this team as a projected starter.

QB Taylen Green, RETURNING
RB Ja'Quinden Jackson, NFL
WR Tyron Broden, NFL
WR Andrew Armstrong, NFL
WR Isaiah Sategna, Oklahoma
TE Luke Hasz, Ole Miss
LT Fernando Carmona, RETURNING
LG Patrick Kutas, Ole Miss
C Addison Nichols, SMU
RG Josh Braun, Kentucky
RT Keyshawn Blackstock, RETURNING (Not expected to start)

This means for nine starters, when Alabama A&M rolls around in late August, they will be getting their first starting experience in the Petrino offense. Of the projected new starters coming out of spring, only guard E'Marion Harris has spent a full year learning the system.

That means three players, Green, Carmona and Harris, will be expected to carry the weight of an offense that requires immersion and experience to be successful. Of course, that's technically a better situation than last season where no one had experience, plus the Razorbacks are expected to be much better served by the latest iteration of the Hogs' offensive line.

Arkansas also has at least a little time to develop as a unit before facing a high pressure Power Four game. The Razorbacks open with Alabama A&M followed by Arkansas State before traveling to Ole Miss to open SEC play in mid-September, although it should be noted the game against the Red Wolves is expected to be tougher than it would most years.

That gives the newcomers time to gel and make mistakes that aren't as likely to have so much impact on the season. Arkansas had a fumble, dropped pass and a failed fourth down conversion from the Oklahoma State 20-yard line let in regulation that could have swung the game in the Hogs' favor.

That extra win, giving Arkansas eight wins on the year following a 5-1 start with only a close loss to Texas A&M as a blemish, would have greatly changed the program's perception. Whether Arkansas can avoid giving away an unexpected win early in the season this year will be heavily determined by the improvement of the offense.

If it follows the trend of having a returning highly productive SEC quarterback, then yes. However, if it follows the other side of the coin for how things go when replacing basically an entirely new offense while running a complicated system that simply takes time, the Hogs could face another year where the ball just doesn't bounce their way.

HOGS FEED