Looking at what Tennessee's game plan may be for Razorbacks this week

A shifting Arkansas staff faces Tennessee’s potent offense Saturday in Knoxville, with high stakes and uncertainty on both sides

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen (2) is tackled by Tennessee Volunteers defensive back Jalen McMurray (6) during overtime at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas fans are down to hoping for a resurrection while Tennessee is trying to avoid a trap game.

That's been the case for the Volunteers against the Razorbacks on several occasions, including last season. The Vols are No. 4 in the country this year and might be a better team while the Hogs aren't as good as a very mediocre team in 2024.

Tennessee opened as a 13.5-point favorite, with the over/under line at 69.5, that's since fluctuated a point or two but the expectations are for an offensively-driven game.

Tennessee comes off a dramatic 41-34 overtime road victory over Mississippi State.

Arkansas, by contrast, has endured turbulence. Head coach Sam Pittman was dismissed following a 56-13 loss to Notre Dame, and Bobby Petrino returns as interim head coach to steady the ship.

Petrino immediately initiated staff changes, naming Chris Wilson defensive coordinator and ordering turnover among defensive assistants.

Razorback fans are expecting him to bring back teams from 2010 and 2011, but the odds of that coming together in a week probably aren't going to happen. That's assuming Petrino could get them back to that level again if he stays four years as the head coach.

Unpredictability on display

Tennessee coach Josh Heupel acknowledged the challenge of preparing for an evolving Arkansas program.

He has said this week that with a new staff and system, preparation becomes more about focusing on fundamentals than opponent tendencies. That uncertainty sets the tone for what is shaping up to be a tactical chess match.

Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green remains a bright spot for the Razorbacks. Most of that came from the first two games of the year and aren't looking at the second-half problems the last three games (all losses).

His dual-threat skill set presents a challenge for Tennessee’s defensive staff, which has shown vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks this season. National projections reflect the difficulty Arkansas faces, with ESPN’s analytics giving the Razorbacks roughly a 17 percent chance of pulling off the upset.

Green’s passing game, meanwhile, faces a Tennessee secondary that has been leaned on heavily this season. Arkansas’s defense as a whole ranks near the bottom of the FBS in yards allowed and has struggled to contain explosive plays downfield.

Hogs rebuilding, Tennessee responding

Beyond coaching changes, Arkansas has restructured its coordinator ranks.

Petrino will continue calling plays but turned the defensive reins over to Chris Wilson. Kolby Smith takes over as offensive coordinator, adding a new wrinkle to a Razorbacks offense already centered on Green’s ability to extend plays.

For Tennessee, continuity and depth play to its advantage.

The Vols have reloaded health-wise and are growing more confident as the season progresses. Their offense looks to dictate tempo rather than simply react to defensive looks.

Special teams and turnover margin could swing the game. In their overtime win at Mississippi State, Tennessee made several timely plays to tilt field position. Arkansas, riding momentum from Green’s creativity, must balance risk and reward while staying disciplined.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) passes during the third quarter against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Razorback Stadium. | Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Keys to Tennessee’s path to win

Tennessee must do three things to stay in control starting with winning the line of scrimmage, containing Green’s run-pass balance, and avoiding defensive breakdowns.

Given Arkansas’s defensive inconsistencies, exploiting mismatches and forcing early pressure is what they are hoping to duplicate.

Another key storyline centers on how Tennessee’s secondary handles Arkansas’s big-play potential.

Green has already connected on multiple long touchdown passes early in the season.

If the Vols can keep those in check, Arkansas may be forced into third-and-long situations, which have been a weakness for its offense.

In addition, Tennessee’s offensive balance by establishing the run to set up the pass can keep Arkansas off rhythm.

The Razorbacks’ staff shakeup could create energy, but disciplined execution by the Volunteers remains essential.

Predictions, context and bigger picture

Betting markets reflect the Vols’ edge, with oddsmakers favoring Tennessee by nearly two touchdowns entering the weekend.

Analysts across national outlets have largely predicted a Tennessee win, though many believe Arkansas’s unpredictability under Petrino could create some early game chaos.

Saturday’s atmosphere in Knoxville is expected to be ideal for football, though some fans expressed disappointment that the matchup wasn’t given a night kickoff slot.

Still, the contest holds significance for both programs’ trajectories entering mid-October.

In the broader SEC context, a convincing win over Arkansas would help Tennessee maintain its momentum in the East Division.

For Arkansas, this game serves as a barometer for whether Petrino can stabilize the program enough to salvage the season.

The Vols, meanwhile, must manage injury concerns and continue improving on third down efficiency. Those are two areas that have defined their early-season performances.

Key takeaways

• Arkansas enters in flux, with a new interim head coach and restructured staff creating unpredictability in preparation and play-calling.
• Taylen Green remains Arkansas’s best weapon, a dual-threat quarterback who can challenge Tennessee’s defensive integrity.
• Tennessee’s execution and discipline are crucial to capitalize on Arkansas’s defensive lapses and maintain its SEC standing.