Daily Dunk: Best College Basketball Bets Today (Predictions for Texas-BYU, High Point-Wisconsin, Upset Pick)

The Madness is upon us!

The first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament kicks off at 12:15 p.m. EST with the Ohio State Buckeyes taking on the TCU Horned Frogs – one of 16 games slated for March 19.

So, it’s only right we place a few bets, right?

SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan is betting on every single game in March Madness (you can find his story here), so I’m taking over the Daily Dunk column for the next few weeks to share a couple of my favorite plays for the day.

Starting with an upset pick and ending with a moneyline favorite, I have three picks to keep bettors locked in on Thursday’s slate.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis for each selection as the world’s greatest tournament is officially underway.

Best College Basketball Bets for March Madness First Round

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

South Florida Moneyline (+164) vs. Louisville

Why not start with my favorite upset pick of the day on Thursday?

Louisville star guard Mikel Brown Jr. has been ruled out for the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament with a back injury, which significantly limits this team’s ceiling. Louisville had a pretty early exit in the ACC Tournament with Brown out.

South Florida needed to win the AAC to get into the field, but the Bulls have an impressive defensive resume, ranking 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Bulls are also:

47th in opponent effective field goal percentage
56th in opponent turnover rate
24th in opponent 2-point percentage.

South Florida also loves to push the pace, ranking 15th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. So, can the Bulls overwhelm a short-handed Cardinals squad? Louisville has a pretty strong profile, but the ACC wasn’t super deep this season, as shown by just two teams (Duke and Virginia) receiving better than a No. 6 seed in the tournament.

South Florida is a great bet to cover and worth a look to win outright with Louisville down its best player.

High Point +10.5 (-118) vs. Wisconsin

While I’m not going to go all in a No. 12 (High Point) upsetting a No. 5 (Wisconsin), I do think the Panthers can keep this game close on Thursday afternoon. There could be some wacky things that go on with this game, as it is a 10:50 a.m. local time start (the game is 1:50 p.m. EST, but played in Portland).

The High Point Panthers have an interesting profile – and an elite offense – that may be able to win a shootout with this Wisconsin Badgers squad.

The Badgers beat Michigan during the regular season and have a ton of great wins under their belt, but they rank 177th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage and 324th in opponent turnover rate.

The Panthers are going to thrive in the turnover battle, as they are fourth in the country in turnover rate and fifth in opponent turnover rate this season. They also are 48th in the country in effective field goal percentage.

For as many good wins as Wisconsin has, it also has some weird losses, dropping a game by 14 points to Oregon, 17 points to Ohio State and 30 to Nebraska during Big Ten play. So, the Badgers are gettable on an off shooting night – especially against a team that can fill it up from beyond the arc.

Wisconsin has the fifth-highest 3-point rate in the country, but opponents are shooting just 31.9 percent from deep against the Panthers. I’ll take the 10.5 points in this afternoon's battle.

BYU Moneyline (-135) vs. Texas

A.J. Dybantsa is set to make his NCAA Tournament debut on Thursday night, and I’m buying his BYU Cougars to knock off the Texas Longhorns.

Texas picked up a thrilling win over NC State in the First Four, but it has a much tougher test on Thursday against one of the best offenses in the country.

Not only is Dybantsa the country’s leading scorer at 25.3 points per game, but KenPom has the Cougars as the No. 10 offense in the country this season. Now, Texas does clock in at No. 18 in adjusted offensive efficiency, but it’s just 94th in adjusted defensive efficiency, which led to a season where it fell to the First Four.

The Cougars lost star Richie Saunders earlier this season, but they closed out the season strong, beating a pair of top-10 teams (Iowa State and Texas Tech) to boost their resume.

Texas ranks third in the country in free-throw rate this season, but the Cougars do a solid job of defending without fouling, ranking 42nd in opponent free-throw rate.

I think there are two areas where Texas struggles that could swing this game in BYU’s favor:

Texas is just 299th in opponent 3-point percentage
Texas is just 348th in opponent turnover rate

After the Longhorns struggled to put away NC State in the First Four, I think they’re in for a tough matchup against arguably the best scorer in the country. BYU should win outright to advance to the Round of 32.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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