Projections for Razorbacks' record from others not good, but not shocking

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas' season began with optimism and two early wins, but a series of self-inflicted mistakes, a blowout loss to Notre Dame, and sweeping staff changes have left the program in survival mode.

If you don't believe it you haven't been paying attention very closely.

Arkansas stands 2-3 heading into its open date after victories over Alabama A&M and Arkansas State were overshadowed by crushing defeats.

The Razorbacks squandered late chances against Ole Miss and Memphis, then endured a 56-13 home loss to Notre Dame, prompting the dismissal of head coach Sam Pittman and three defensive assistants.

Athletics director Hunter Yurachek named Bobby Petrino interim head coach for the remainder of the season, describing the move as “necessary to stabilize the locker room and re-evaluate leadership.”

Fans are expecting something special from Petrino like his final two seasons as head coach in 2010-11 but a more believable path is a smoldering program in the rearview mirror.

Schedule leaves little margin for recovery

Arkansas returns from its bye week with a punishing SEC slate. The Razorbacks travel to Tennessee on Oct. 11, then host Texas A&M (Oct. 18), Auburn (Oct. 25), and Mississippi State (Nov. 1). Road trips to LSU (Nov. 15) and Texas (Nov. 22) follow before the home finale against Missouri on Nov. 29.

Analysts from Saturday Down South and TeamRankings forecast a 4-8 finish, but in a pessimistic model factoring in the coaching transition and morale issues, a 3-9 record is a realistic outcome.

Even 2-10 is very possible. This team is a mess and it's hard to see a recovery coming quickly.

Breaking down the losses ahead

The Razorbacks’ first five games have revealed recurring problems: turnovers, penalties, and breakdowns in pass protection. If those persist, the remaining schedule could unfold this way:

• at Tennessee (Oct. 11) – The Volunteers’ tempo exposes defensive lapses. Loss (2-4)

• vs. Texas A&M (Oct. 18) – Aggies dominate the trenches. Loss (2-5)

• vs. Auburn (Oct. 25) – Petrino’s offense sputters in the red zone. Loss (2-6)

• vs. Mississippi State (Nov. 1) – Bulldogs’ air attack prevails late. Loss (2-7)

• at LSU (Nov. 15) – Tigers’ depth overwhelms depleted defense. Loss (2-8)

• at Texas (Nov. 22) – Former Southwest rival cruises at home. Loss (2-9)

• vs. Missouri (Nov. 29) – Emotional finale slips away on turnovers. Loss (2-10)

A slight uptick such as stealing a win over Mississippi State or Missouri would raise the mark to 3-9, but bowl eligibility probably remains out of reach.

Considering the wild weekend across college football that just happened, anything could happen but right now I can't project which team is ripe for an upset.

Just because they look gettable this week doesn't mean they won't look like a playoff team the next week. It's the way things are going this year.

Offense searching for consistency under Petrino

Quarterback Taylen Green has shown flashes of his dual-threat ability but remains inconsistent. His late fumbles against both Ole Miss and Memphis directly contributed to losses, and he was held to 124 passing yards against Notre Dame’s pressure defense.

Under Petrino, Arkansas plans to simplify protections and emphasize shorter passing routes.

“We’ve got to protect the football first,” Petrino said after his first practice as interim coach. “Explosive plays don’t matter if we can’t finish drives.”

The offensive line has allowed 19 sacks through five games, and the Razorbacks average just 3.4 yards per carry, among the lowest in the SEC.

Defense undergoing emergency overhaul

The midseason staff purge hit the defense hardest. Coordinator Jay Hayes remains, but the dismissals of position coaches Marcus Carter, Derrick Samuels, and Paul McNeil leave gaps in continuity.

Arkansas has surrendered 440 yards per game, including 11 touchdowns in its last two outings.

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard threw for 319 yards in that rout, exploiting Arkansas’ thin secondary.

“We’re not playing gap-sound football,” Petrino said. “That has to change immediately.”

Recruiting, morale, long-term concerns

Fan frustration has intensified after back-to-back home embarrassments, and several 2026 commits have reportedly reconsidered.

The On3 Industry Composite now ranks Arkansas’ next class 12th in the SEC, down three spots since August.

Yurachek continues a national search for a permanent head coach, with Dan Mullen, Jon Sumrall, and Rhett Lashlee among early names linked to the job. Until a decision is made, Petrino faces the challenge of motivating a roster that has lost direction.

What could change the narrative

Even in a pessimistic model, Petrino’s track record as a play-caller offers a small glimmer of hope.

A sharper game plan against Auburn or Mississippi State could flip one result, and improving turnover margin could lift morale heading into December.

Still, without stability or depth, Arkansas appears destined for another losing record and a full reset under new leadership in 2026.

Key takeaways

• Arkansas is 2-3 after losses to Ole Miss, Memphis, and Notre Dame prompted the firing of Sam Pittman.

• Interim coach Bobby Petrino inherits a shaky defense and turnover-prone offense.

• Projections show a 3-9 finish if current trends continue through SEC play.