Taking guess at how Arkansas Razorbacks' season plays out by quarters

Quick look at how Sam Pittman's Hogs could miss bowl game again

Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman on the sidelines against UAB at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-Hogs on SI Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — With the start of Arkansas' fall camp practices exactly a week away, it's time for our annual schedule breakdown by quarters.

Decades ago I was intrigued working in Dallas as Cowboys coach Tom Landry broke down the season that way every single year in training camp. It's summer with sweltering heat and we've just about talked everything else to death.

Most projections for the Razorbacks this year put them at 5-7 wins and we're going to look at exactly what has to happen every three games to get there.

Arkansas State Red Wolves coach Butch Jones coaches against the Northern Illinois Huskies in the Camellia Bowl at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Ala., | Mickey Welsh / USA TODAY NETWORK

First Quarter

Alabama A&M (Aug. 30) to open the season should be a lockdown win, but may be a terrible season-opener to pack the stands and tailgate lots.

A lot of season-ticket holders I've talked with are selling them on the secondary market or letting the younger members of the family go. That's a guess at how hot that 3:15 kickoff is going to be.

Arkansas State (Sept. 6 in Little Rock) will be one the Red Wolves would love to win, but the Hogs HAVE to dominate to keep the Lunatic Fringe happy.

It won't be surprising to see ASU put as much planning, energy and emotion into this game as any game they'll play all year.

The Razorbacks, on the other hand, are viewing the game as a distraction. Both having to play a road game within the state in a delapidated old stadium that should have been imploded decades ago.

Remembering what former assistant said about a game with TCU one time, "This is a game that won't please the coaches, players or fans."

Getting a win may not be as big as how large the margin is, especially early in the game. If the Hogs aren't leading by four touchdowns at halftime, folks will be complaining.

at Ole Miss (Sept. 13) is the first really true test we'll have about this team. It will be a really big SEC opener for the Razorbacks on the road and it probably won't be easy.

A lot of Hogs' fans (and media) think because the Rebels lost a lot off a team that stumbled early against Kentucky last year, then late against Florida and ended up just missing the playoff will drop off.

That may not be the case. Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has a sophomore quarterback in Austin Simmons who may actually have a bigger upside than Jackson Dart and Razorback fans saw it in Fayetteville last year.

The Rebels have quietly rebuilt things from last year and it will be a madhouse there with hotel rooms in the Oxford area already going for over $1,000 a night.

PROJECTION: Hogs go 2-1 to start season, losing at Ole Miss.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green under center against the Tennessee Volunteers at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Michael Morrison-Hogs on SI Images

Second Quarter

at Memphis (Sept. 20) After what may be a very physical and draining game an hour south of the Liberty Bowl Stadium the week before, this one against a team that was 11-2 last year is going to be challenging.

This may be the difference at the end of the season if a postseason destination exists or the howling about coach Sam Pittman's status gets loud.

It's one that I don't have a comfortable feeling about now, but that could change if they beat the Rebels.

Notre Dame (Sept. 27) brings a playoff team to Razorback Stadium for a morning game that simply may be a need to avoid getting blown out.

That's hard to predict right now, but it's harder to project a Razorback win.

at Tennessee (Oct. 11) is a game where the mood is going to be largely dependent on what happens in the five games starting the season.

It's impossible to predict attitude this far ahead, but there are Vols fans saying it's going to be a chance to get a solid win over a team they felt they handed to the Razorbacks in that 19-14 loss in Fayetteville last season.

HALFWAY PROJECTION: Best-case scenario 2-1 while it could be an 0-3 disaster. I'm going with 1-2 and a 3-3 overall record in the first half.

Auburn Tigers coach Hugh Freeze watches a replay on the video board during the second quarter against the New Mexico Lobos at Jordan-Hare Stadium. | John Reed-Imagn Images

Third Quarter

Texas A&M (Oct. 18) brings an Aggies group to town that has recruited really well and has high projections.

Fans are pumped because the game is back in Razorback Stadium, but that only adds three points and A&M is more than three points better in talent looking ahead.

Auburn (Oct. 25) is bringing up memories of what happened a couple of years ago when we were all thinking it was a game the Hogs would win handily.

The Tigers literally dominated from beginning to end and came out of Razorback Stadium with a 48-14 win that wasn't really that close. Plus Hugh Freeze has beaten Sam Pittmen when he brought Liberty town town and won that game.

Mississippi State (Nov. 1) should be the closest thing Razorback fans can count on for a big win at home over an SEC team. Be cautious, though, because that was the thought process in 2023, too.

The Bulldogs are a team with as many questions as Arkansas with a second-year coach trying not to duplicate what the Hogs did in 2018-19, but there's a different feel with Jeff Lebby than what was going on here then.

PROJECTION: Hogs go 1-2 and that creates a 4-5 overall record headed to a brutal November.

LSU Tigers coach Brian Kelly reacts to a play against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the second half at Tiger Stadium. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Fourth Quarter

at LSU (Nov. 15) is projected as a loss, but strange things have happened in this game before. Just don't look for it this year as the Tigers are pointing toward more than just a playoff appearance.

With a coach who hasn't met expectations, it's also one where he's got the talent to start making a playoff statement and back the Razorbacks to the cliff of missing the postseason.

at Texas (Nov. 22) will have a lot of hope from Hogs' fans going to Austin, but it's hard to see that getting pulled off unless there's a lot of injuries before to what could be a Texas team in the top three with a quarterback in the Heisman chase.

None of that sets up well for the Razorbacks and the howling could go crazy by this point from the Lunatic Fringe as a bowl trip disappears and basketball takes the spotlight.

Missouri (Nov. 29) is a game that, as usual, is dependent on what happens in the games played previously. The thought is this could be the biggest shot the Hogs have had at beating the Tigers in a long time.

Like more than the twice they've accomplished since Missouri came into the league.

FINAL PROJECTION: Hogs go 5-7 winning the first quarter, but struggling the rest of the way. It could be a wild last two months of the season.