What national analytics say about Razorbacks' chances to upset Longhorns

Computer models favor old rival Texas, but Arkansas hopes to pull off historic feat

Texas Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian looks on prior to a game against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The Arkansas Razorbacks will face old Southwest Conference rival Texas Saturday in what could be one of the biggest games of the season for both sides.

The Razorbacks haven't defeated a Power Four opponent this season and have lost five games while holding a double-digit lead.

In terms of total yards given up lately, Arkansas' interim defensive staff have seen vast improvement, but it could be chalked up to the struggling units it has faced.

At one point, the Razorbacks gave up an average of more than 450 yards, but in recent weeks that number has been trimmed down to 426, which ranks No. 123 nationally.

Like all but one game under interim head coach Bobby Petrino, Arkansas lost another one-possession game against LSU after taking a two-possession lead in the first quarter. Despite leading in the fourth, the Razorbacks still couldn't hold on, but hope to play spoiler on the road at Texas this weekend.

Petrino had the offense humming like a well oiled machine at different points in the season, but have since fallen outside the Top 10 in total offense and barely hang onto the No. 25 spot in points per game.

Texas' defense has remained a championship level group, ranked No. 23 nationally at a tad over 317 yards per game. Only two teams, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, have notched more than 300 yards on the Longhorns defense this fall.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian is aware of how close the Razorbacks like to keep it even though the Hogs are 0-6 one-score games. He has mentally prepared his team a close game and wants to avoid being the first SEC win on Arkansas' resume.

"Our focus is on what we can control, and what we can control is our preparation and our play this Saturday, against a very, very dangerous Arkansas team," Sarkisian said. "The record is not indicative of how well these guys have been playing. They’ve played four road games and lost by a combined 11 points."

The ESPN Matchup Predictor doesn't necessarily consider this a close match-up. Arkansas is only given a 16.9% chance of knocking off Texas Saturday.

If the Razorbacks pull off the upset at DKR Memorial Stadium, it'll be the first time the Hogs take down the Longhorns durinng a losing season since 1938.

Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) passes against the LSU Tigers during the first half at Tiger Stadium. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

ESPN deep dive

ESPN's Bill Connelly has the Longhorns ranked No. 22 in his updated SP+ ratings this week in what's been a disappointing season in Austin. The Razorbacks are ranked No. 41 despite a 2-8 (0-6 SEC) record, and remains the only team in among the Top 50 with less than three wins.

The Longhorns haven't plummeted far since their start at No. 1 overall with a drop down to No. 12, according to ESPN's Football Power Index which is a much higher than Connelly's rating system.

Connelly gives Texas a 10.5 point edge and 73% chance of beating Arkansas this week with a predicted score of 33-23.

ESPN FPI (SEC) Rankings

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Texas A&M
4. Texas
5. Ole Miss
6. Oklahoma
7. Tennessee
8. Vanderbilt
9. Missouri
10. LSU
11. Auburn
12. South Carolina
13. Kentucky
14. Florida
15. Arkansas
16. Mississippi State

What Sarkisian is saying about Arkansas game

It's been quite a while since Arkansas has been to Austin. The Hogs' last road game against the Longhorns occurred in 2008, a 52-10 loss in Petrino's first season.

"The other side of it is we’re restoring a great rivalry," Sarkisian said. "And it is the first time for Arkansas to be back at DKR in quite some time. And so I know our guys are excited about that too. They have had to go there twice now, and they know what that environment was like. So for Arkansas to come here, and to play in DKR, I know our guys are excited about the opportunity. But we need to be careful, I’ll definitely say that.”

Arkansas Razorbacks coach Bobby Petrino on the sidelines during game with the Texas A&M Aggies at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Ark. | Nilsen Roman-allHOGS Images

Sarkisian is aware of Arkansas' ability to pile up offensive numbers even without the wins to go along. Texas is coming off a humbling 35-10 defeat at Georgia last week, but the Longhorns' fifth-year coach is confident his team is prepared to rebound this weekend.

"[Arkansas] is a very talented team, well coached," Sarkisian said. "Coach Petrino does a heck of a job, in particular on offense, and it shows. So we got our work cut out for us, but I think the good thing about our team, I think that we have regrouped, we have refocused, and our focus is on this game this Saturday, and it is one game at a time here for the final two.”

Game Information

Arkansas at Texas

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m.
Venue: DKR Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
TV: ABC
Radio: Arkansas Razorbacks Sports Network
Series Record: Texas leads 57-23